Gloomy forecasts for the holidays. Are we not spending them with the family?

The fourth wave in our country is accelerating, and Poles are just waiting for the government to introduce some restrictions. This is not happening yet, although the daily numbers of infections and deaths are rising. What’s next? It was checked by analysts from the Institute of Health Measurement and Assessment at the University of Washington (IHME). In their opinion, we can expect the worst statistics at Christmas.

1. In 2020, the rhythm of holidays celebrated in Poland was disturbed by a pandemic
2. We were unable to meet our relatives at Easter, and then go to the graves during All Saints’ Day. Christmas was also overshadowed by restrictions
3. This year, unfortunately, it may be similar, taking into account the forecasts for our country for the coming weeks
4. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

Coronavirus: IHME forecasts for Poland. They have high verifiability

The Institute of Health Measurement and Assessment at the University of Washington has been modeling the course of the pandemic in individual countries since spring 2020. Analysts predict what will happen in the coming months, taking into account various factors, such as the level of public immunization or wearing masks.

It is worth noting that so far the IHME charts have not been completely different from the reality when it comes to the situation in our country. The researchers predicted that during the second wave, we should have recorded the highest daily number of infections on November 5 (it was supposed to be around 57). In fact, November 7 was the worst day of the Second Wave – there were 27 back then. 875 diagnosed cases of COVID-19. It was similar with the deaths in the third wave. At the beginning of February, analysts predicted that on June 1, the number of deaths related to coronavirus infection in the worst case would be 54, and at best (if we adhere to the restrictions and wear masks conscientiously) – 46,2. On June 1, 2021, the death counter showed 73 thousand. 856, so a number even higher than in the least optimistic predictions.

The rest of the text is below the video.

IHME: Infections, hospitalizations and deaths sharply up in December 2021.

Now that the fourth wave is flooding Europe and the highly infectious Delta variant has also reached Poland, an analysis of the IHME forecasts may give us an answer to the question of what will happen next. Especially since there are more and more suggestions that it is time to return to restrictions, such as the widespread wearing of masks.

1. Poles are less and less afraid of the coronavirus. And they don’t want to get vaccinated

IHME analysts do not have good news for Poles. Their calculations show that the worst is yet to come. The number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths will start to grow dynamically, and this will be a time of particular importance to Poles – the pre-holiday period.

If nothing changed when it comes to the restrictions in our country, according to the IHME forecast, the peak incidence would be on December 11. We would then record 94 thousand. 663 infections. In the worst-case scenario, the peak moment for the fourth wave would be November 27, with 206. 805 infections. However, if we were to wear masks commonly, the chart in December would be much more optimistic, with less than 10. infections during the holiday season.

The prognosis for hospitalization among COVID-19 patients is also very poor. It shows that on December 26, 38 people will be staying in hospitals. 965 sick. 15 thousand 300 will be in the ICU.

In the pre-Christmas period, according to the IHME forecast, the number of deaths among COVID-19 patients will also be high. On December 22, there will be 378 (in the worst-case scenario 1011). If we were to wear masks commonly, it would drop to 28.

Christmas 2020. What were the restrictions during last year’s holidays?

At the moment, we do not know whether the government will decide to introduce any restrictions resulting from the epidemic situation in our country. We can only predict what may happen in the coming weeks. In the worst-case scenario, we will have to prepare for a repeat of last year’s restrictions. So let’s take a look at the rules that applied to Poles during Christmas in 2020.

1. The editorial office recommends: The increasing number of COVID-19 infections during the crisis in the health care system. Doctor: we are in for a disaster

During last year’s holidays, we were obliged to cover our mouths and noses in public spaces, as well as a ban on organizing parties. A total of five people could attend the Christmas Eve supper, apart from the hosts themselves.

At that time, there were restrictions on movement on the territory of Poland. There was a faithful limit in the churches – one person per 15 sq m could stay there, with a distance of 1,5 m and the mouth and nose covered. Until December 27, the operation of hotels was suspended (people were allowed to stay in them only for business purposes).

On December 28, a national quarantine was introduced, known as the “extended period of responsibility”. It meant the closure of hotels, shopping malls and ski slopes.

Also read:

1. COVID-19 despite vaccination – who is most at risk? A risk calculator was created
2. New rules for declaring deaths. Changes in the regulations are coming
3. BioNTech chief: a new COVID-2022 vaccine will be needed in 19
4. The fourth wave is accelerating, but Poles are not afraid of infection [SONDAŻ]
5. Norwegians started treating COVID-19 like the flu? There is a reaction from the local authorities

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