Gloomy forecasts for 2022. Up to 3 billion infections with Omikron

The Omikron variant, increasingly common around the world, worries doctors and virologists, but also makes predictions about how it will affect the rest of the pandemic. There have already been many scenarios about what the first months of 2022 may bring. According to some scientists, up to 3 billion people around the world may become infected with the coronavirus within a few months.

1. The Omikron variant is more contagious than the Delta, but not as much as originally thought
2. Ahead of us is another wave of COVID-19 infections around the world caused by Omikron
3. Although it does not make the disease more severe than Delta, it can lead to the collapse of the health care system in many countries
4. Especially since some forecasts say that in the next two months it will infect 40 percent. whole world
5. The forecasts of many centers were collected by the Statnews website
6. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

Omikron – the new most destructive wave

Since the appearance of the Omikron variant, scientists have been wondering how it will affect the future of the pandemic, both near and far. The scenarios for the near future depend on many factors, primarily how people will behave. Further forecasts are even more vague and divergent, but they all agree on one thing – the SARS-CoV-2 virus will stay with us for a long time, most likely forever.

“I think we have a much longer road to the end of COVID-19 than we expected,” says Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease analyst at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University.

1. Moderna or Pfizer? Which booster provides better protection?

Currently, the biggest concern is the higher contagiousness of the Omicron compared to earlier variants. It also infects vaccinated and convalescents to a large extent. Shaman’s research shows that Omikron is “only” 35 percent. more contagious than Delta, which is much less than reported several times more infectious, but its ability to break immunity could make a new wave a possible «the most devastating ever ».

Omicron in the USA – record numbers of infections

Scientists at the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas made 18 different predictions of how the new variant could hit the US.

The worst-case scenario assumed that Omikron is not more infectious than Delta, but avoids immunity much better and is more likely to cause severe disease. In a situation where too few people in the United States had taken a booster dose of vaccines, the forecast says that the peak incidence will be in early February 2022. The new wave will generate 342 jobs. deaths in the first half of next year, i.e. by 20 percent. more than in the corresponding period of 2021.

The rest of the text is below the video.

The most optimistic scenario assumed high transmissivity of the Omicron, lower ability to avoid immunity and a high level of inoculation with a booster dose. In this version, deaths in 2022 will be 50 percent. less than the current one.

– In all scenarios, we expect the waves of infection to be as high as that of the Delta in September. But that’s rather the minimum, says Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. – In the maximum version, the increases in incidence will be greater than those from January 2021, which would mean the largest waves of new COVID-19 cases in our history – he adds.

Omicrons can be lethal to health protection

Scientists point out that the increases in infections caused by the Omikron variant in different countries look and will look different. In South Africa, where Omikron first appeared, the bars showing the number of infections increased sharply and then dropped just as sharply.

– The first increases were really terrifying. But this collapse offers some hope, says computational biologist Trevor Bedford of the Cancer Research Center. Fred Hutchinson.

1. Scientists have discovered how you can get super-immune to COVID-19

However, the situation in South Africa cannot be translated into Europe or the United States. In the latter country, the society is much older, many people have comorbidities, mainly diabetes and heart disease. Moreover, Omikron in South Africa was the only such common variant, and Delta still dominates in the USA and Europe. The overlapping of the two options will put an even greater burden on the health care system.

The United Kingdom is currently struggling with the highest wave of COVID-19 infections in history. There are currently over 100 jobs daily there. infections. And even if Omikron carries a lower risk of hospitalization, the scale of the disease may be fatal for the health care system. “So it really matters when the peak contamination occurs and ends,” Bedford says. – If it ends up like South Africa, it won’t be bad. Otherwise, a lot of harm can happen – he emphasizes.

The period of “high risk”

Scientists emphasize that we are just entering a “high-risk” period. “If we were to talk about a time when we should exercise extreme caution, it is now,” says Meyers. “If we all try a little bit now and stop the infection, we’ll save the healthcare system,” he adds.

The United States is currently experiencing record spikes in infections, but virologists there are aware that it could be even worse.

“The waves of infection so far have been at a regional level and spread over time, which has allowed resources to be moved from one place to another,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota. “We will have a viral storm across the country in the next two to eight weeks, and our healthcare systems will be hit hardest by this storm,” he adds.

3 billion infections in two months

Increases in infections will occur almost all over the world. The University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Health Assessment has published projections of 3 billion infections worldwide from now until the end of February. “The new wave will reach all countries,” says Chris Murray, director of the institute. The projections are that the number of deaths in the coming wave of infection is small, much lower than that of Delta. However, other effects of a pandemic can overwhelm the system, such as mass testing, isolation and quarantine.

1. When will the Omikron wave come in Poland? Scientists’ forecast

Countries that have not so far recorded many infections (New Zealand), as well as powers like China, where the vaccines used (Sinopharm, Sinovac) provide little protection against infection with the new variant, may have problems with containing Omikron.

The poorest countries will suffer the most from the new wave. One is that they will move to the end of the vaccine queue again, because richer countries will vaccinate, two – due to the coronavirus, issues such as the prevention of malaria and tuberculosis will be relegated to the background due to the coronavirus.

The animals will help the virus survive

It is impossible to predict where a new variant might appear and what properties it will have. Bedford predicted in September that if a new variant was released, it would be a revised version of the Delta. And yet Omikron appeared “out of nowhere”. The variant has no common ancestors with Delta, it evolved from a strain that was circulating in mid-2020, with no trace of intermediate versions in the meantime. One hypothesis is that the mid-2020 strain infected some unknown population of animals (e.g. rodents), as the pathogen spread in that group, it has evolved and recently spread to humans.

SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that infects not only humans. It has been detected in the body, among others cats, dogs, wild cats, gorillas, mink and deer. Some time ago it was discovered that up to 40 percent. deer populations in several US states have had antibodies to the coronavirus.

1. Where did Omikron come from? Scientists had a big surprise

All this suggests that animals may be a reservoir of the virus. The environment in which it will circulate, evolve and pass to humans in mutant versions.

Whether it becomes endemic in six months, a year, or five years from now, this virus will remain on Earth, possibly forever, says Jeremy Kamil, virologist at Louisiana State University Health Shreveport. – As long as humans, animals and rodents function in close proximity to each other, the virus will evolve and change. And perhaps it will no longer be the threat it is today, but it will not completely disappear – he explains.

Co dalej?

US analysts say SARS-CoV-2 has never been brought under control in this country. The successive spikes in infections were not waves, but “humps” of the increasingly spreading COVID-19. Vaccines reduced infections in the first months of this year, but then the Delta variant and later the Omikron variant emerged. The year 2021 looks like the previous year, only the waves are of greater intensity.

1. The omicron grows faster than previous mutations. What does the Nebraska case show?

According to experts, the coronavirus will “calm down” next year. But before that happens, it will roll over the world. – Omikron will infect 40 percent in the next two months. whole world. But it will also increase the resilience of the entire population, says Murray. And after this enormous wave has passed, the transmission of the virus will drop significantly. Continuous vaccination or immunization of different populations, as well as the production of antiviral drugs should also help in this.

As a result, SARS-CoV-2 could become an endemic coronavirus and join four previously discovered (designated OC43, 229E, HKU1, and NL63) human coronaviruses causing mild respiratory infections.

In Bedford’s view, the increases caused by the Omicron could be the last wave of the pandemic.

Also read:

1. How many NOPs have been recorded so far?
2. The five most common symptoms of Omikron infection [LIST]
3. What medications are better not to take before and after vaccination, and why?
4. A doctor from a covid hospital talks about the most difficult cases. “Young, unvaccinated are dying”

The content of the medTvoiLokony website is intended to improve, not replace, the contact between the Website User and their doctor. The website is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Before following the specialist knowledge, in particular medical advice, contained on our Website, you must consult a doctor. The Administrator does not bear any consequences resulting from the use of information contained on the Website. Do you need a medical consultation or an e-prescription? Go to halodoctor.pl, where you will get online help – quickly, safely and without leaving your home.