Gerd Leonhard: “In 10 years, all programmers will be unemployed”

“We should not use technology to dehumanize a person”

You often say that Silicon Valley entrepreneurs hope that technology can make them superhuman. Is there a difference in attitudes towards technology between Americans and Europeans?

– Yes. Americans are used to being pioneers and are trying to bring the future closer at any cost. Any problem they consider technical. Their goal is to cope with the limitations that nature has imposed on humans: to live longer, to be healthy and rich, to stop wasting time on sleep. Why? “Because we can!” But the Europeans understand that in addition to all this there is something else. Happiness is not a program, it cannot be achieved with personalized food that is tailored to your genome. I would put it this way: the United States prioritizes technology, Europe prioritizes humanity, and China prioritizes the state. It is difficult to say what our country prioritizes.

— What global problems can technology solve, and what can not?

– Any application. They can give the world cheap food, energy, clean water, make knowledge accessible. Even with climate change will help to cope with the help of decarbonization of the atmosphere. But they will not be able to solve socio-political problems – eliminate inequality, unemployment, terrorism. In fact, technology even worsens them. It has become much easier for terrorists, for example, to coordinate their actions through instant messengers and social networks. Now everyone has suddenly forgotten that the task of the state is to build a prosperous society. Not a society with fast mobile networks or access to the Internet of things, but a society whose citizens are happy. Even governments fail to remember that we should not use technology to dehumanize people: if technology can harm people, it must be curbed.

“Efficiency as a business goal is greatly overrated”

– In 2008, the head of our largest company at that time, Gazprom, predicted that in a few years it would cost $1 trillion. But the first trillion-dollar companies were completely different – Amazon and Apple. Why?

“Because we better understand what people really need. Many companies think in terms of efficiency – they try to produce products faster, cheaper, in large batches. But the most important thing a business can do is create meaning. Efficiency as a business goal is greatly overrated. Let’s take the example of the telecom industry: yes, operators are constantly striving to increase the volume and speed of data transfer. But the ultimate goal is still different – to offer new services. When you think about efficiency, you first of all care about your money, but after all, the consumer does not care about how much you earn, he needs to be shown a new direction.

— At the same time, you often accuse technological platforms — Facebook, Google — of hindering free competition.

— The “platform” economy is a consequence of the uncontrolled growth of companies. Until recently, the platforms were mostly good – they increased the availability of services, but then they began to turn into totalitarian corporations that dictate their terms. Everyone knows that Amazon is the most powerful company in the world, far more powerful than Standard Oil or Exxon. Or the same Facebook, which has 4 billion users. If you have a small business somewhere in India, now you simply have to create an account on this social network and promote products on it, otherwise you will be overboard.

– So we will live in a world where monopolies dominate in any industry?

– It’s almost like that now. Of course, we cannot slow down progress by putting a spoke in the wheels of tech giants, but we must avoid monopolization, which widens the gap between the poor and the rich. Imagine that a monopoly platform appears in the field of healthcare, without which you can neither buy medicines nor make an appointment with a doctor. Its owners will be able to impose on people whatever they want. Something like what Google and Facebook are doing in the field of advertising and media will happen. There are ways to cope with the dominance of platforms. For example, you can impose special taxes on them, which will lead to a redistribution of wealth. For example, make Facebook share some of the money with local journalists and bloggers who would create meaningful content. It’s difficult, but there is no other choice.

– You call smartphones a “second brain”, which has already taken over some of the functions that our consciousness usually did. What new device will replace it?

– Some kind of digital assistant who will, like an efficient servant, perform a thousand tasks for you. For example, you want to throw a party and tell him: book a table in a restaurant, invite my best friends – and he does all this on your behalf. Maybe it will be glasses with augmented or virtual reality, which will, among other things, help people in their work. For example, a doctor wearing such glasses will be able to see information about the patient’s ailments directly on their glasses and find ways to treat them in the database.

Such a doctor will become more knowledgeable than the ordinary one. But we must not forget that by expanding some human capabilities, we “amputate” others. We will become too dependent on such assistants, as well as on virtual reality, in which people will spend a significant part of the day in the near future. This dependence will be similar to alcohol and with the same consequences – up to the destruction of families. Imagine that you are returning from a beautiful, interesting virtual world to everyday life, to your wife and children – and you feel bored and sad, as if you have lost one eye. Probably, there will also be restrictions here. As with real alcohol, which is not banned in most countries, but, for example, children cannot drink it and cannot be purchased at night.

“Traveling the world is much more rewarding than studying for an MBA”

– Even 30 years ago everyone was sure that a computer would never beat a person in chess, because he did not have intuition and the ability to be creative. Now the AI ​​is taking one area after another from us. When he overtakes people in almost everything, what remains for us to do?

“Computers, by their very nature, are better at playing math games, where the winner is the one who better calculates the options for moves. If they use machine learning, they may well develop a certain creativity in themselves and beat a person in more complex games, such as go. But what computers will be able to do not earlier than in 30-50 years is the things that are very simple for us humans. For example, emotions, compassion, foresight are not available to them. In addition, AI systems are mostly single-tasking, tailored for a specific function. The same “brilliant” neural network that beat a person in Go cannot even buy a ticket via the Internet. Today, computers are learning to do routine work—driving a car, analyzing finances, checking facts. The good news is that 50-70% of almost all human work is routine. In all this, robots will be able to replace us, freeing us for more human tasks. The end of the routine does not mean the end of the work. Only individual industries will not be lucky. For example, 95% of the work of call centers is a routine. As a result, machines will replace almost all of their employees.

– What to teach children so that they can find a job when they grow up?

“We live in a world where more than 70% of the professions in demand in the future do not yet exist, and 50% of the current professions will soon become freelance. Everything is changing too fast. For example, the social media industry, which did not really exist a decade ago, now employs 21 million people. Now people are trying to teach children the exact sciences – mathematics, physics, programming, engineering disciplines. But this is exactly what machines already understand better than us! In ten years, all programmers will be unemployed – or at least most of them. India graduates 1 million engineers a year – can you imagine what an army of unemployed people will be? It is necessary to teach what makes us human – the ability to communicate, understanding, humanism. I tell my son: traveling the world is much more useful than unlearning an MBA.

— Some HR specialists believe that when robots take over the routine work, “soft skills” will become the main value of employees.

— Yes, for example, emotional intelligence. A good HR director can sometimes evaluate the applicant sitting in front of him in a chair in just a second. Machines, on the other hand, often fail to do so, even with complex tests. And there are many areas where they will not replace people. Imagine a robot judge: he has read all the laws, studied all the documents, but he does not know what it is like to be in prison. Sympathy is alien to him, which means he will be a bad judge. Now more than 70% of the jobs of the future do not yet exist, and 50% of the current jobs will soon become freelance.

How will financial technology change the economy?

— We are moving towards a world where all payments will be made in digital money. I don’t mean crypto-currency – the money that is issued in a decentralized way is not interested in the government of any large country. Most likely, we will make transactions in some single currency for the whole world, the rate of which will be calculated on the basis of a basket of leading national currencies. At the same time, it will be possible to make purchases and conduct transactions around the world, without any cross-border commissions. It will also change the banking industry. For example, if in ten years I need several thousand dollars for a new truck, I will not go to the bank, but will go online to a “digital broker” – an ordinary individual who distributes loans in different countries for any purpose.

– There is an opinion that the Internet of things will greatly change the insurance business – companies, for example, will begin to put sensors on insured cars and track how owners drive.

“It won’t eliminate unforeseen circumstances. Humans are not machines – from time to time we make mistakes and even bad deeds. We couldn’t predict Trump’s election or Brexit, we have national disasters. And if companies refuse to insure those cars whose owners, in their opinion, drive carelessly, it will kill their own business. But now they have the opportunity to offer useful new services, such as video surveillance or cyber threat insurance.

– But in general, the Internet of Things will change our lives more than the regular Internet?

– Yes. Much for the better. For example, the “smart” infrastructure of cities can reduce energy consumption, fight crime, and improve the transport system. This is a powerful source of progress. But here’s what needs to be avoided – a situation where each of us will be under the hood. Like in China: you crossed the street on red, the camera recognized your face, and now the system will decide how dangerous you are to society. One hundred percent security means zero freedom.

— Now there is a lot of talk about the fact that the sharing economy is replacing the previous consumption model, when a person mainly purchased goods. Where it leads?

We are moving towards abundance. The sharing model will make the use of any things and services cheaper and more convenient. This happened a long time ago in the field of multimedia: first you bought a music album for €10, then for €2, and now on Spotify for just €20 you get access to 35 million tracks. The same is happening with rental housing, medical services and many other areas. In 20 years, the very meaning of consumption will change. It will be post-capitalism, something close to socialism. Humanity will come to it in a different way than Marx dreamed.