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By the early 2030s, robots may partially replace humans in a number of professions and become highly skilled assistants. Or maybe an alternative to pets. Understanding scenarios for the development of robotics
Boston Consulting Group experts suggest that by 2030 the global robotics market could increase tenfold, reaching $ 260 billion. Already, scientists around the world are developing the potential of robots, bringing them closer in functionality to human capabilities. BCG found out which trends influence the development of robotics and how the industry will develop in the next ten years. Trends drive the main findings of this study.
Three scenarios for the development of robotics
The rise of individualization
This scenario is most similar to what is happening in the field of robotics today. Most likely, companies will begin to create customized robots aimed at solving the tasks required by individual consumers. Perhaps someone will create a robot that picks strawberries, or a machine that can take blood samples.
Of course, it is worth considering that in this market there will initially be a very high price tag. Moreover, robot manufacturers will not be able to increase production volumes to reduce costs. In such an environment, specialized small or medium-sized companies and start-ups that can easily adapt to consumer needs and can create a niche product will have an advantage.
Increasing Automation
The second likely path for the development of robotics. In this case, robots will be able to take jobs: there will be courier robots, assembly robots and robots for charging electric vehicles.
The leaders in this market will be companies that can scale production by creating cheap mechatronic devices. Such robots can be mass-produced, designed and purchased online.
The development of artificial intelligence
Last scenario. Here we can expect the development of mobile and fully autonomous intelligent robots. They will be able to cope with complex and dynamic tasks: work at airports, train stations and hotels.
Software development will play a major role in this market. Potentially, if such a scenario develops, the companies that create robots will move into the background. They are more likely to become platforms for testing new software options.
The ability to learn and complete autonomy: trends in robotics
The demand for robots capable of performing the functions of a professional services service will grow. Their value on the market, according to researchers, will be from $90 billion to $170 billion, while the volume of the market for industrial and collaborative robots will be half as much – from $40 to $50 billion.
Social trends will accelerate the need for high-tech robotic solutions. As the modern generation matures, already accustomed to using robots, there will be an increase in the demand for assistants who will help with exercises, personal hygiene, food delivery. Attention to the environmental agenda and the principles of sustainability will shift the focus towards robots performing complex sorting tasks.
The number of robots in low-paid areas will increase. Experts note that the lack of manual labor and wage increases in countries where it used to be low will lead to a fairly rapid replacement of people by robots. Now, in order to overcome the problem of an aging population and rising wages, robotic technologies have begun to be actively introduced at Chinese enterprises. Since 2008, the wages of factory workers in the country have increased by 71%.
Artificial intelligence and other technological solutions will bring humans and robots closer together. The development of robotic technologies and the increase in the capabilities of assistants will greatly simplify interaction with them. Artificial intelligence will soon allow robots to cope with unexpected situations without the help of people. Swarm intelligence will increase the capabilities of mobile robots: they will be able to distribute tasks between each other and even change them. Visualization systems encourage more autonomy during data analysis and validation. The development of 5G communication networks and other communication capabilities will be the impetus for increasing the range of robots and cloud networks, expanding the computing power of robots and sensors.
Robots will start learning. Today, robots are trained to solve problems in the real world on special simulators, but this is a rather crude method, which is gradually becoming insufficient: robots are still partly beyond the control of situationality and instantaneous solutions. However, a few years ago, the neural network research and development company OpenAI created a robotic arm that solved the most popular puzzle – the Rubik’s Cube – without human assistance.
It took the engineers 50 hours to train the hand, during which it gained approximately 100 human years of experience.
Machines with conditional automation will master more tasks. Cars will still use a signal to inform the driver that assistance is needed, although their functionality will increase significantly, up to maneuvering without human assistance in a pre-programmed area. BCG experts expect that by 2030, cars with third-level automation will account for about 8% of sales in the global car market.
Asian robotics companies, which now make up a small part of the market, will begin to compete with American and European giants. Retailers in Asian countries are beginning to actively modernize their facilities to meet the growing demand for products, so robot manufacturers (including startups) should take this factor into account and use it as a starting point for growth. However, since 2017, the number of robotics companies in Korea, China and Japan has been increasing quite rapidly. Some Chinese companies can already compete with manufacturers from America and Europe.