Contents
In line with its mission, the Editorial Board of MedTvoiLokony makes every effort to provide reliable medical content supported by the latest scientific knowledge. The additional flag “Checked Content” indicates that the article has been reviewed by or written directly by a physician. This two-step verification: a medical journalist and a doctor allows us to provide the highest quality content in line with current medical knowledge.
Our commitment in this area has been appreciated, among others, by by the Association of Journalists for Health, which awarded the Editorial Board of MedTvoiLokony with the honorary title of the Great Educator.
We asked several doctors how they saw the course of the coronavirus pandemic in 2022. All forecasts have one thing in common – vaccination. Each of the respondents devoted a large part of his speech to them, because their progress largely determines not only the course of the pandemic, but also the condition of the Polish health care system.
- According to prof. Filipiak, there are four possible scenarios for how the epidemic will unfold
- Experts agree that the coronavirus will become a viral infection over time, but you will likely need to get vaccinated against it every year, just like the flu
- Doctors believe that ending the epidemic in Poland may be difficult due to the low level of vaccination of the society
- Specialists especially fear the coming spring. – Early spring is even more dangerous because it starts unbuttoning jackets, taking off scarves, hats, so it can be hard. I wish I was wrong, I wish this and everyone around me – says Dr. Jasek
- You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page
Four scenarios by prof. Filipiak
As noted by prof. dr hab. n. med. Krzysztof J. Filipiak, rector of the Medical University of Maria Skłodowskiej-Curie in Warsaw, a pandemic on this scale happens once every hundred years and it is difficult to give an unambiguous answer to the question about its further course.
The ideal scenario, according to the professor, would look something like this: quick administration of the entire population of effective vaccines, which will achieve herd immunity, and then extinguish the pandemic. Meanwhile, it is like this:
Immunity after a vaccine decreases, and it lasts even shorter after infection, hence huge populations would need to be vaccinated quickly in order for the majority to obtain immunity at the same time. Unfortunately, it fails, many people still do not want to vaccinate, and the vaccination period is getting longer. The pandemic has not been brought under control, and people who have already been vaccinated need to be vaccinated again, hence the maintenance doses.
There are opinions that three doses of the vaccine should protect us for a long timeHowever, we can already see that vaccines do not protect against disease, although they are still extremely effective in reducing the risk of death and severe infection, e.g. requiring intubation or ventilator therapy. We also have ample evidence that vaccinated people, if they become infected, get sick more mildly and infect others less.
– Hence, the strategy of isolating unvaccinated people makes sense and has been widely accepted in Western European countries – adds prof. Filipiak. – It is worth isolating and limiting contacts to unvaccinated people, because they are responsible for the prolongation of the pandemic. On the other hand, those who are fully vaccinated or who have had COVID-19 in the last six months or who are regularly tested should be considered safer.
Prof. Krzysztof J. Filipiak in December 2021 developed four scenarios for the future. Here they are:
1. Nevertheless, we manage to vaccinate most of the world’s population quickly, the pandemic is expiring, we announce its end at the turn of 2022/2023 – no new, dangerous mutants of the virus appear, implantation with the third dose gives longer protection than originally anticipated.
2. We manage to vaccinate most of the inhabitants, but it takes too long, unvaccinated people are responsible for high virus transmission, new dangerous mutants appear, new, modified mRNA vaccines are needed. So we are starting to vaccinate from the beginning – we do not see the end of the pandemic, the virus has spread all over the world, many people fall ill and die, the need for even greater isolation of unvaccinated people is increasing, and vaccination is compulsory in many countries.
3. The pandemic is subsiding – there are discussions and debates about how much it was due to vaccination and how much it was due to the acquisition of herd immunity, perhaps due to the decrease in virulence of the virus or the wider use of new oral antiviral drugs – all these elements may be decisive. Unfortunately, this scenario comes with a high death rate, but the pandemic is history. However, the lack of a clear conclusion on how we overcame it strengthens the anti-rational and anti-vaccine movements. We also become more vulnerable to future pandemics.
4. We manage to vaccinate a large part of the world’s population, each successive wave of the virus becomes less dangerous, although unfortunately it requires annual vaccinations. The virus is finally classified as typical seasonal droplet infections, we successfully treat smaller and smaller populations of infected with oral medications, we begin to treat SARS-CoV-2 like the flu, and annual vaccinations become recommended, as in civilized countries, flu vaccination is recommended.
The first scenario sounds fantastic, but the word fantastic also tells you how far it is from becoming reality. The professor thinks that the possibility of implementing scenario 2 is likewise unlikely, although the probability is slightly higher here. The third scenario is even more realistic, but the professor himself selects the last one.
– It seems to me the most real today. Several pharmaceutical companies have already started work on bivalent vaccines – against COVID-19 and influenza in the same preparation.
Scenario 4 also includes a statement by Dr. Katarzyna Śleziak-Barglik, head of the POZ clinic in Ruda Śląska:
– I have the impression that we will have to learn to live with the coronavirus, just like the flu, and the virus will mutate in different directionsjust like the flu is sometimes more severe and sometimes milder, he says.
When it comes to vaccinations, Dr. Śleziak-Barglik is very firm and believes that everyone will have to undergo them. There will be no option to live without them, and the preparation against the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself will enter the canon of vaccination.
– Our immune system will certainly learn to fight the coronavirus more effectively – says Dr. Śleziak-Barglik. – Already, in vaccinated people, the course of COVID-19 resembles a slight cold or sinusitis. It is not bad, and what is more, these patients do not generate such complications as the unvaccinated. We also need to be aware that patients who have comorbidities will be more severely affected by COVID-19 than any other infectious disease.
- See also: Siege in clinics. «Mainly unvaccinated, they test themselves»
When asked about the prognosis of vaccinating Poles, the doctor replies: – Those who have already started vaccinate consistently. There is also a large group that did not get vaccinated because they did not make it, did not think. This is not about anti-vaccine beliefs, but about a lack of care. I think this group will eventually get vaccinated once covid gets sick.
The fact that we did not achieve our target vaccination levels, and that vaccines were not as effective as we assumed, worries Dr. n. med. Michał Chudzik, cardiologist from Lodz, initiator and coordinator of the «STOP-COVID» program (www.stop-covid.pl).
The future, even the near future, is under a big question mark. The most important issue for us is the reduction of the number of deaths, because this is the dimension of the pandemic that is the greatest tragedy in Poland. Regardless of the fact whether it is the fault of patients, who have such a small percentage of vaccinated, or, additionally, the result of organizational errors in health care, it is difficult to find positives.
– Looking at the fight against the pandemic from a broader perspective, I emphasize that the only possibility of stopping it is mass and relatively quick vaccinations – says Dr. Barbara Hasiec, MD, a specialist in paediatrics and infectious diseases, head of the Department of Infectious Diseases in Children at the Independent Public Provincial Hospital. John of God in Lublin. – Then the chance that the virus will mutate again will decrease. Let’s also hope that awareness of vaccines will increase. Too small percentage of the population is still vaccinated in Poland. Citizens believe conspiracy theories, not medics, who eventually go for help. In addition, the tendency of mass contamination is so easy that the virus tends to cause infections that are progressively less severe, and then stays in the environment as seasonally causing them. With a large number of vaccinated, even if the vaccine is less effective, there is a chance to eliminate severe COVID-19 courses. The coronavirus will stay with us, but I hope it will not be so virulent and will free us from all the restrictions we are condemned to at the moment.
- See also: Will we get herd immunity thanks to the Omikron? The doctor is under no illusions
Dr. n. med. Łukasz Jask, a neurologist from the Department of Neurology, Strokes and Neurorehabilitation, USK No. I im. N. Barlicki in Łódź, awakens in the spring of 2022. He believes that the spring waves of the pandemic have always been a bit heavier, like the third wave that we saw in early 2021. Patients who came to his unit at that time were mostly in very bad conditions, completely unprotected by prophylaxis.
– At the moment, I also have a lot of seriously ill patients, but younger patients are ill – admits Dr. Jasek. – However, looking at the level of vaccination and the lack of protection, I mean masks, distance and disinfection, and the disorganization of the health care system, I am terrified.
Check your health by performing a comprehensive test package for convalescents.
We will observe an increase in the incidence of autoimmune diseases in children
While the coronavirus spared children and adolescents at the start of the pandemic, with the advent of the Delta and Omikron variants, these groups also began to fall ill. Delta, which dominated the fourth wave, causes infections even among very young children.
– One third of patients who fell ill since September, i.e. from the beginning of the fourth wave, were children up to the age of one – says Dr. Hasiec – that is even two or three weeks old. Currently, I have several children in the ward, aged 2, 4 and 5 weeks.
- Also read: Omikron is extremely dangerous for children. They get sick more often and harder
COVID-19 quickly causes pneumonia in young children. Toddlers have a high temperature, cough or symptoms of a gastrointestinal infection. On the other hand, teenagers get sick just like adults. Pneumonia appears, which is severe, often 50-60 percent is involved. spit. Young patients require oxygen therapy, supportive treatment with antiviral drugs and steroids. A large group of patients are also children from risk groups, after cardiac surgery, with chronic neurological diseases or with diabetes.
– We had several cases of newly diagnosed diabetes while contracting COVID-19 – adds Dr. Hasiec.
– Probably in 2022 Omikron or other variants of SARS-CoV-2 will be the dominant one – says Dr. Hasiec. – Seeing how quickly it multiplies, you can assume that many people will get sick. Although it is believed that the infection caused by this variant is slightly milder, but let’s consider two things. First, if statistically a lot of people get sick, there are always more severe courses. For example, due to risk groups and other burdens, such as age. Plus, vaccines are said to be a little less effective. If so, immunity breakdown can occur and vaccinated people or those recovering from previous mutations of the virus can fall ill again. Remember that SARS-CoV-2 has a huge impact on the immune system, so children also need to be protected.
Children over 5 years of age can be vaccinated, while babies are protected by vaccinated mothers, as their parents or siblings are the most common source of infection. So, if we don’t take vaccination seriously, we may have not-so-distant problems of increasing autoimmune diseases. We already know about complications such as PIMS, but Guillain-Barré syndrome, myocarditis or lupus may be associated with it.
Healthcare can be inefficient
– It is very bad that the waves of the pandemic will overlap – says Dr. Chudzik. – There will be no break for normal treatment. Last year we managed to do it, after each wave there were a few months in which we made up for, if in medicine you can even talk about catching up, but most of the patients could be diagnosed and operated on. The beginning of this year looks very bad in this respect. I believe that we are not drawing conclusions from the pandemic in the field of organizational change. We are not using the slim medical staff at our disposal.
Doctors give examples of using forces and resources to solve secondary problems. It is, for example, a decision to compulsorily vaccinate medics, since health care workers account for over 90% of vaccinated. The few percent that have not been vaccinated can be removed from patients, but can we afford it?
– We must finally make decisions that will eventually protect us all from falling ill, but so far there have been no specific moves from the government – believes Dr. Jasek. – There was a lot of talk and the three groups that were due to be vaccinated in March are long after vaccinations. Let me remind you that almost 97 percent. doctors are vaccinated with two, and now probably three, doses. Among nurses, over 90 percent. There are fewer teachers among the teachers, but they are still split. I don’t understand this decision. I am not a supporter of absolute compulsory vaccinations, as in Austria, because all dependencies must be considered. On the other hand, the unvaccinated should not be allowed everywhere, because they pose a danger to others. This is not about the individual, but about society.
– Does the radiologist who describes the tests have to be vaccinated – wonders Dr. Chudzik. – Is it just someone who has direct contact with the patient? I would like us to be able to provide normal treatment for all patients, because there is not enough time to treat non-covid patients.
The pandemic showed that there are no reserves in health care, and after putting additional work on the medics, the system does not last. Patients themselves should start demanding changes, because they are waiting in long lines, they have difficult access to specialists and even hospital treatment.
– You need to introduce such changes to relieve medics from all non-medical matters, and meanwhile, they are constantly given new duties, e.g. administrative ones – worries Dr. Chudzik. – Today I am on duty and at 16 p.m. I put on the covid suit and go to the patients. I only come back before midnight, so I will definitely not answer phone calls from their relatives, who can only learn something about their health.
According to Dr. Chudzik, excess deaths in Poland result from the fact that the system cannot cope with many problems.
“It’s not just a question of immunization, because the vaccinated patients are also dying,” he says. – Excess mortality results from the fact that we are a sick society, and the Polish average age of healthy life is one of the lowest in Europe. We care little about health and with the burden of COVID-19, the patient cannot cope, even if he is vaccinated.
– Mortality in spring 2022 may be very high – prophesies Dr. Jasek. – The question is, how many patients will live to spring? So far, with the number of daily deaths we have recently, if the statistics improve in spring, it will be the result of the current death rate. However, the longer I watch what is happening, the more I fear spring, the more that it always relaxes.
– Please note that in Poland we associate autumn and winter with a more infectious period, and in fact autumn, winter and the turn of winter and spring are equally dangerous – adds Dr. Jasek. – Early spring is even more dangerous because it starts unbuttoning jackets, taking off scarves, hats, so it can be tough. I wish I was wrong, I wish this and everyone around me.
This may interest you:
- «I will not get vaccinated. Nobody will force me ». The doctor responds with “unconvinced”
- There may be paralysis in 2-3 weeks. The doctor tells you what will happen
- How to treat COVID-19 at home? Here are the recommended and prohibited medications
The content of the medTvoiLokony website is intended to improve, not replace, the contact between the Website User and their doctor. The website is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Before following the specialist knowledge, in particular medical advice, contained on our Website, you must consult a doctor. The Administrator does not bear any consequences resulting from the use of information contained on the Website. Do you need a medical consultation or an e-prescription? Go to halodoctor.pl, where you will get online help – quickly, safely and without leaving your home.