For years, scientists have warned against the “revival” of monkey pox. They were right

The emergence of monkey pox cases outside of Africa has caused concern around the world. After more than two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are alert to new viruses and mysterious diseases. However, monkey pox is not a new disease, and scientists have warned it could become more serious threats for a long time. The first calls for special attention to monkey pox appeared as early as 1988. Experts had anticipated this and were right.

Monkey pox, scientists have warned for years

The npr.com website checked when the first mention of the possible epidemic potential of monkey pox appeared.

In 1988, British experts in an article published in the International Journal of Epidemiology put forward a bold and, as it turned out, prophetic thesis on monkey pox.

Scientists wrote that an epidemic of the disease can be expected in the future (read the full article HERE).

At that time, monkey pox was a very rare disease, there were several cases a year, only in the territory of Africa. There was also no human transmission – patients became infected from rodents or primates.

Scientists from London, however, predicted that over the years, cases of infection would increase. They predicted that the epidemics, which so far only affected parts of Africa, would increase and would spread further.

Boghum Titanji’s doctor of Emory University in the US says to npr.com: “In any article about monkey pox from the past, there is always a warning about how we need to prepare for more epidemics in the future. This prediction came true ».

This is confirmed by statistics. In the 90s, about 50 cases of monkey pox were recorded annually. In 2020, scientists informed about approx. 5 infections. We are currently dealing with the spread of the disease around the world. The latest figures show about 400 confirmed cases outside Africa.

The threat of monkey pox was also reported in 2018. According to dailymail.co.uk, a British virus scientist warned about the disease four years ago. Expert Allen Roberts said that we have no immunity to this disease and most of the world’s population is without any protection.

A year later, a panel of experts reported that 70 percent the world’s population is susceptible to monkey poxbecause they didn’t get the smallpox vaccine. “Monkey pox is now a relapsing disease,” they wrote.

Another alarm was raised in 2020. The World Health Organization in its bulletin warned that the epidemic potential of monkey pox was growing.

But this is not the end. Just a few months ago, before the outbreaks we are seeing now, an article about monkey pox was published in the journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. In it, a panel of experts wrote about the “escalation of cases” and the “resurgence” of the disease. Specialists found that the number of cases had increased tenfold since the 70s.

Exterminating smallpox may have helped monkey smallpox

What could have helped monkey pox spread around the world? Paradoxically, it could have been caused by the complete eradication of another disease – smallpox.

Smallpox eradication is considered one of the greatest successes in the history of medicine. Thanks to the vaccine, the disease was eliminated in 1980. Experts have no doubt that it saved millions of lives. Smallpox is one of the most deadly diseases that have ever existed. Even 30 percent. patients died (for comparison – the monkey pox mortality rate is about 1%).

Epidemiologist Anne Rimoin from the University of California in Los Angeles in an interview with npr.com explains, however, that this could have opened the way for monkey pox. «Other viruses fill this void. This is what we see » – says the expert.

Fortunately, the latter disease is much milder and does not pose such a serious threat. Unfortunately, it is closely related to smallpox, which may mean that it is now spreading around the world.

Dlaczego? The researchers explain that the smallpox vaccine also protected (to some extent – its effectiveness is estimated at around 85%) against monkey pox. So as long as it was administered, the population was immune to both diseases. But in the late 70s, vaccinations were discontinued, so immunity to smallpox has dropped significantly over the past 40 years.

Epidemiologist Jo Walker of the Yale School of Public Health says bluntly: “We are at the point where the population’s resistance to monkey pox is at its lowest in thousands of years.”

Due to the lack of immunity, infections and human-to-human transmission of the virus may occur more frequently. An epidemic that would have been minor in the 90s in Africa could now become much larger and spread to other continents.

According to experts, outbreaks of monkey pox will become more frequent, precisely because of the lack of immunity. For now, however, there is no need to panic. First, there are drugs that are effective in treating monkey pox. Secondly, we also have smallpox vaccines that offer protection against the monkey variety as well.