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How will the epidemic in Poland continue? The peak of detected infections, ranging between 26 and 31, may occur at the turn of November and December, while the peak of hospitalization and admissions to the ICU – in the first half of December. This scenario of the course of the pandemic results from ICM UW data.
The Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling (ICM) of the University of Warsaw has made available the simulation results of its epidemiological model on the website covid-19.icm.edu.pl. This model describes the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland and makes it possible to predict potential paths of further epidemic development, as well as to study various scenarios and effects that are introduced by administrative restrictions.
According to the data presented on the website, it is expected the peak of identified infections may come within a few days in late November / early Decemberafter which the number of infections should slowly decrease at a rate roughly corresponding to the rate of previous increase.
The peak of hospitalization and “ICU-isolation”, ie stays in the intensive care unit, is scheduled for the first half of December. The current data from the Ministry of Health on infections seem to be consistent with the model’s predictions, while the current number of hospitalized and ICU patients is, according to the Ministry’s data, lower than forecasted.
The charts were prepared for two scenarios: higher and lower transmissivity in public places. The simulation covers the period until January 1.
In the case of higher transmissivity, the maximum number of detected infections (at the turn of November and December) would be approx. 31 thousand. per day, 48 thousand. hospitalized and 6 thousand. in the ICU. In the case of lower transmission capacity, it would be approx. 26 thousand. infections per day, 39 thousand. hospitalized and 5000 in the ICU.
Contrary to media information, “higher transmissivity” does not mean in this case the effects of street protests – scientists from ICM emphasize – but a lower level of effectiveness of introducing the yellow and red zones throughout the country. “At the current stage of the model’s development, we are not methodologically prepared to accountably account for this type of assembly as a separate factor. Therefore, it is not legitimate to state that the ICM UW model shows that street protests may increase the number of identified cases from 25. per 31 thousand » – we read on the ICM website.
A team of 12 people is working on the ICM Epidemiological Model, including six researchers: Dr. Franciszek Rakowski (team leader), Dr. Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Dr. Rafał Bartczuk, Dr. Jan Kisielewski, Dr. Jędrzej Nowosielski, Dr. Jakub Zieliński; and three developers: Dr. Łukasz Górski, Karol Niedzielewski and Marcin Semeniuk. Work on the model is also supported by two interns: Antoni Moszyński (MIMUW student) and Maciej Radwan (Warsaw University of Technology student). Artur Kaczorek is the team secretary.
The team of the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of the University of Warsaw cooperates on an ongoing basis with the Minister of Health, including the Department of Analyzes and Strategies of the Ministry of Health and the Government Center for Security.
The results of the ICM Epidemiological Model simulation are generally available at covid-19.icm.edu.pl. In addition to the ICM Epidemiological Model, the website also presents research on zoonoses (zoonoses) by Dr. Aneta Afelt and an interactive map of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Are you infected with the coronavirus or someone close to you has COVID-19? Or maybe you work in the health service? Would you like to share your story or report any irregularities that you have witnessed or affected? Write to us at: [email protected]. We guarantee anonymity!
Full resolution charts are available on the model’s website: https://covid-19.icm.edu.pl/model-epidemiologiczny-icm/
The ICM Interactive Pandemic Map makes it possible to compare epidemiological data in terms of population size, country wealth, population density and health care quality. The application is integrated with demographic data provided by the World Bank and the Johns Hopkins University (JHU Center for Systems Science and Engineering). (PAP)
Author: Paweł Wernicki / PAP
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