Experts: COVID-19 will become endemic. What does this mean for us? [WE EXPLAIN]

It’s been two years since the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the world. During this time, we have gone through several pandemic waves, over 300 million people fell ill, almost 6 million died. What else awaits us? Many experts believe that the pandemic will eventually be replaced by endemics. When can this happen and what does it really mean?

1. Experts believe that the currently pandemic COVID-19 will turn into an endemic disease
2. This means that transmission of the pathogen will no longer be violent and uncontrolled and will become more predictable. We’ll start living next to the virus
3. Examples of endemic diseases are colds, flu, and HIV / AIDS
4. A disease considered endemic does not have to be mild. What might our life be like with the endemic COVID-19?
5. Respond before it’s too late. Get to know your Health Index!
6. You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page

It starts with an epidemic

The coronavirus is “shaking” the world for the second year now. During this time, several variants of SARS-CoV-2 have already taken their toll – Alfa, Beta, Delta, now Omikron. How can it all end? Many experts believe that COVID-19 will eventually become an endemic disease. How to understand? How can COVID-19 proceed then? What is endemia anyway? An excellent analysis in «The Conversation» was published by epidemiologist prof. Hassan Vally and public health specialist Catherine Bennett.

As they note, the disease can be epidemic or endemic. The hallmark of an epidemic is that the number of cases in the community is unusually high or unexpected. If this is happening on a global scale, it is a pandemic. This is what happened with COVID-19.

“When a new virus such as SARS-CoV-2 emerges, which has the potential to cause severe disease while being highly infectious and lacking any immunity in the population, the factors causing the spread of the disease are extremely potent,” note Vally and Bennett . In other words, in an epidemic, factors favoring the spread of the disease outweigh those limiting it. «The disease spreads like a wildfire raging in the bush. It is explosive, once it is built, it is difficult to control »- scientists write.

The rest of the text is below the video.

How does an epidemic disease become endemic?

Over time, however, the driving forces behind the epidemic are changing. Vaccinations (the best solution), but also natural infections build population immunity, “the pathogen is running out of fuel”, its ability to transmit and infect decreases. Fewer people get sick and die less. The behavior of the community also weakens the strength of the virus – limiting contacts, wearing masks, and taking care of hand hygiene.

“And finally, if we’re lucky, the virus can evolve over an extended period of time, becoming inherently less severe,” write Hassan Vally and Catherine Bennett. The spread of the disease ceases to be violent and uncontrolled, transmission becomes more predictable. This does not mean that there will be no more wave increases – we can still observe them, especially seasonally. What is important is that at this stage they are “expected and manageable”.

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“In short, we are starting to live alongside the virus,” say Vally and Bennett bluntly, adding: “This is what we mean by endemic disease.” It is worth mentioning that the word “endemic” itself comes from the Greek “endēmos”, which means “in the population”. Examples of endemic diseases are colds, flu, and HIV / AIDS.

COVID-19 as an endemic disease. What could it look like?

It is worth remembering that a disease considered endemic does not have to be a mild disease. Getting to this point does not mean losing our vigilance and giving in to or ignoring the virus. “We remain vigilant and react to unfavorable changes by doing what is needed to keep the transmission as low as possible” – emphasize the researchers. In other words, the endemic nature of the disease means that it remains part of our lives “and therefore we continue to protect vulnerable people as we do with other diseases”.

Vally and Bennett note that the transition from COVID-19 to an endemic disease does not necessarily have to be smooth, and that there will no doubt be obstacles along the way. One of the most important is the possibility of the emergence of new variants and their impact on the infectivity and severity of the disease. It should also be remembered that individual countries will not enter the endemic phase at the same time – it is influenced, among others, by variable environmental factors and levels of vaccination.

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The most important thing we can do to help make COVID-19 an endemic disease is to vaccinate ourselves and continue to follow the sanitary regime. «By doing this, we protect ourselves, the people around us, and together we are approaching the endemic phase of the virus. If we do not cooperate, the situation may worsen very quickly and prolong the end of the pandemic, ”we read in The Conversation.

When could COVID-19 become endemic? “Many experts believe that in 2022 this path will be enormous progress” – emphasized prof. Hassan Vally and Catherine Bennett.

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