Expert: The pandemic in the world is not subsiding. New outbreaks of epidemics continue to appear in Poland

– The pandemic in the world is not abating, its intensity varies in different parts of the world depending on local conditions. New outbreaks of epidemics are still appearing in Poland, and the old ones are not completely under control – notes Dr. Paweł Grzesiowski, president of the Foundation of the Institute of Infection Prevention.

Over 6 million COVID-19 infections worldwide

The latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO) shows that since the outbreak of the pandemic in December 2019, a total of over 6 million SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections have been recorded, and over 370 people died. 2,8 million patients recovered, while active infections are present today, almost 3 million.

– The pandemic is not weakening in the world, its intensity varies in different parts of the world depending on local conditions – warns Dr. Paweł Grzesiowski, the president of the Foundation of the Institute of Infection Prevention.

An example is Brazil, where the record number of 26,4 thousand was recorded in the last 19 hours. new cases of COVID-439. Total infections are already there, there are 27. and XNUMX thousand. deaths.

A creeping epidemic in Poland

So far, over 23 jobs have been recorded in Poland. coronavirus infections and over 1 deaths, less than in the age of other countries (we are in 35th place), which was achieved thanks to an early announced social quarantine. The specialist points out, however, that now we have a “creeping epidemic”: the situation does not improve day by day, but the number of active cases continues to increase.

– Since April, there has been a more or less constant number of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection in our country, with periodic increases in epidemic outbreaks. However, new outbreaks of epidemics are still appearing, and the old ones are not completely under control – emphasizes Dr. Grzesiowski.

The highest number of infections and deaths per population is in the following voivodships: Śląskie, Dolnośląskie, Opolskie, Mazowieckie, Wielkopolskie and Łódzkie. The least, in turn, was in the Lubuskie, Warmińsko-Mazurskie, Podkarpackie and Lubelskie voivodships.

See also: Where are we in the epidemic? The curve is flat and you can’t see the top

Loosening the restrictions is a challenge

According to Dr. Grzesiowski, the new challenge is loosening the restrictions – making us move with a similar frequency as before the epidemic. Infected people who do not have symptoms of the disease – or slight ones, but can infect other people – also move. At the same time, a large part of the population in our country is susceptible to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, because thanks to quarantine it has not yet encountered it.

According to mathematical models based on the number of deaths, it is estimated that in our country there may be around 180 infected, assuming that the COVID-19 mortality rate is 0,5%.

– Underestimating deaths by 50% means that it may be about 350 thousand. cases, which gives almost 1 percent. population – adds Dr. Grzesiowski.

From the research of prof. Krzysztof Pyrć, head of the Laboratory of Virology at the Jagiellonian University, conducted on a sample of 1000 people, shows that 2 percent. people may already have IgG antibodies specific to the coronavirus.

– If we were to adopt 2 percent. – says Dr. Grzesiowski – it gives about 780 thousand. people who have been in contact with this microorganism.

2 percent our population that has been in contact with this SARS-CoV-2 is still not much, according to the expert. According to epidemiologists, population immunity must reach at least 70% for a society to be immune to infection. No country in the world has ever achieved such immunity.

See also: Coronavirus – restrictions in Poland. Stages of lifting restrictions [Update 29.05.2020/XNUMX/XNUMX]

Threats of new disease outbreaks

One of the most affected regions in the world is New York, where over 376 have been reported so far. infections and almost 30 thousand. deaths. According to preliminary data, there may be 21 percent in New York. infected people, and 16,7 percent. on Long Island and 11,7 percent. in the counties of Westchester and Rockland. In the rest of New York State, it is only 3,6 percent. infected. The research on a group of 3 people show that the average number of infected there may be 14 percent. population.

– You have to remember that the more people gather in one place, especially indoors, the greater the risk of infection – emphasizes Dr. Grzesiowski.

The greatest threat is in health care facilities, hospitals and social care homes. Other places where outbreaks are most likely to occur are kindergartens, schools and workplaces, military units, boarding houses and refugee camps.

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