Expert: 6-10 thousand people will die this fall people with COVID-19

According to forecasts, a heavy epidemic autumn is ahead of us. The coming months may bring a high number of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. – At the peak of the COVID-19 wave this year, 12-15 thousand people will be needed daily. beds in hospitals – said Dr. Franciszek Rakowski from ICM UW in an interview with PAP.

1. A team of ICM UW experts is working on forecasts for the course of the epidemic
2. On this basis, scientists estimated that this fall, the number of hospitalizations each day may range from 12 to 15.
3. Autumn is also expected to bring a high number of deaths from COVID-19
4. More current information can be found on the Onet homepage.

12-15 thousand beds each day

The forecasts for the course of the epidemic in Poland are being worked on by, among others, a team of experts from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of the University of Warsaw under the supervision of Dr. Franciszek Rakowski from the Epidemiological Model Team.

«We estimate that in the darkest scenarios, 12-15 thousand people will be needed every day this fall. beds for COVID-19 patients »- told PAP Dr. Franciszek Rakowski.

The expert noted that it is difficult to say whether we are currently undergoing one of the peak waves of the pandemic, because testing has been very limited. Many people perform tests on their own, probably only a few do them on the orders of doctors. Perhaps the peak of the wave will not take place until September with the opening of schools – he pointed out.

“We have lost the tool that allows us to check the actual number of infections now,” he stressed. He stated that the confirmed number of infections in recent months did not reflect the actual situation. “Our estimates show that there may be 20 to 50 times more infections than the official ministerial data,” he added.

On average, we have 100-250 thousand. infections

Dr. Rakowski said that the average number of confirmed infections, given by the Ministry of Health, last week was about 5. cases. This means that there may now be 100-250 infections per day.

“Last fall, the Delta variant resulted in the deaths of between 40 and 45. people. At the moment, we estimate that it will be 6-10 thousand. throughout the autumn »- said Dr. Rakowski.

The ICM model takes into account, inter alia, the rate of decline in resistance to infection.

«The pace is very fast. However, vaccinated people will go through the disease more easily and avoid hospitalization »- he emphasized.

The ICM UW estimates also show that approx. 50 percent. people exposed to infection will not get sick (PAP)

Author: Szymon Zdziebijowski