Dzieiątkowski: Is there any 1002 people who got infected because their child brought the virus from school? This requires careful analysis

– The media from neighboring countries ask me how we do it that the coronavirus situation in Poland is so good. I answer them: we do not know if it is good for us. We just don’t even know if it’s bad with us. If we were to perform as many tests as other European countries, perhaps we would also be dealing with an avalanche of diseases, such as in the Czech Republic or France – says virologist, Dr. Tomasz Dzieiątkowski.

1. On September 19, the daily number of infected people in Poland amounted to 1002 people. From mid-September, this indicator increased day by day, but the symbolic thousand was exceeded for the first time
2. – Companies have returned to normal office work, children have gone to schools, infection centers are still present at weddings and mass events, says Dr. Tomasz Dzieścitkowski, explaining the possible reasons for the record-breaking results
3. He also adds that a precise answer to this question requires an in-depth epidemiological analysis
4. – For some time now, we have artificially flattened the disease curve, reducing the number of tests and testing only symptomatic people – explains Dzieśctkowski. – That is why we cannot say precisely what percentage of Poles is infected with SARS-CoV-2 – he adds.

The daily number of infected people in Poland has been growing since mid-August, to reach a record 19 cases on September 1002. Many experts have been predicting such a scenario for weeks. Some expected an avalanche of infections caused by the return of children to school. Others predicted a second wave of the epidemic in the fall. Is this scenario just becoming a fact?

As the virologist, Dr. hab. Tomasz Dzieiątkowski, the growing number of infections may result from several factors, but this topic requires more detailed epidemiological and statistical analyzes.

“I would not like this increase to come from returning to school”

– First, many companies went back to normal office work. Second, outbreaks of contamination can still result from weddings and mass events. A third reason may be going back to school. And the fourth thing that may also have an impact is the fact that for some time we have been artificially flattening the disease curve, reducing the number of tests and testing only symptomatic people when it comes to COVID-19 – says Dzie citkowski. However, all these factors are potential sources of the increase in the number of cases. – Is there any 1002 people who contracted the infection because their child brought the virus from school? We do not know this, because it requires further epidemiological studies and analyzes, where all these cases come from – says the expert.

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He also adds that he would be very afraid of a situation in which it would turn out that the increase in the number of infected was due to the return of children to school. – It would be very bad – explains Dziecistkowski. Classroom teaching brings much better results than hybrid or distance learning. When confined at home, the children’s knowledge suffers, but also the shaping of social attitudes and their psyche. Failure to return to school could have far more serious consequences in the future than the coronavirus itself. Although it is worth remembering that children are mildly affected by the coronavirus, school employees, grandparents, parents who take them to institutions may be at risk – he adds.

Is the infection record due to the influence of antimasic?

Could the increase in the number of those infected be – at least partially – the result of the actions of the opponents of the restrictions and those who see the pandemic primarily as a conspiracy?

– Undoubtedly, the increase in the number of infections, both in Poland and in Europe, is also influenced by those who deny the purposefulness of maintaining social distance or the guidelines for wearing masks – explains Dzieścitkowski. It has been clearly shown that these general principles have a positive effect in limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2, where unfortunately all the conspiracy theories about the pandemic, the flood of which we see especially in social media, have a negative impact. There are even publications on this subject under the explicit title: “COVID-19: Misinformation can kill” (COVID-19: wrong information can kill).

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“We cannot say what percentage of Poles is infected”

As the virologist explains, the number of tests performed in Poland has never been impressive, and the decision of the Minister of Health to test only symptomatic people has further reduced this number.

– In many European countries, we have been observing an avalanche increase in infections for several weeks, but they are testing broad groups of society – says Dzieścitkowski. – We do not do it, so we cannot say precisely what percentage of Poles is infected with SARS-CoV-2. We can quite accurately know what percentage of Poles symptomatically suffer from COVID-19, which is important from the point of view of the efficiency of the health care system and the possible burden on hospitals and clinics, but this does not give us a full picture of the situation. From the financial point of view, what we are doing is good, but from the point of view of epidemiological knowledge and forecasting epidemics in Poland, it is not necessarily valuable, because it does not give us a full picture of the number of infections – he adds.

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As he explains, too few tests are performed in Poland to assess what point of the epidemic we really are at. – Many people, including the media from neighboring countries, ask me why it is so good here – he says. – I answer them: we do not know if it is good with us. We just don’t know if it’s bad with us. If we were to perform as many tests as other European countries, perhaps we would also be dealing with an avalanche of diseases, such as in the Czech Republic or France.

Is it the second wave?

The virologist – like many other experts commenting on the record – believes that there is no question of a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic in Poland. – It is difficult to talk about the second wave in Poland, because we have never observed the end of the first wave. We have been seeing an increase in the number of daily cases for several days. This number has always fluctuated between 300 and 900, now it has exceeded 1000. This is not the second wave, but it may be the peak of the first wave – believes Dr. Tomasz Dzieiątkowski.

As the expert emphasizes, today’s record is the sum of small decisions of each of us every day.

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– People should finally understand that each of us individually, but also all of us together, is responsible for how this pandemic continues. Until we have a safe vaccine and no targeted treatment against SARS-CoVC-2, we are left with simple methods: social distancing, proper mask wear, and hand hygiene. If we all stick to these truisms, we can stop the spread of the new coronavirus.

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