Does lockdown work? “It should be used to regroup forces”

The specter of a lockdown hangs over Poland, i.e. a complete blockade of the country, called by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki a national quarantine for reasons of failure to recognize it. Many people ask themselves whether it makes sense to shut down the economy and people at home and whether the costs that we will incur in “keeping” the country are commensurate with the benefits we will receive from it? This question is also asked by experts from around the world.

1. The World Health Organization admits that lockdown cannot be the primary means of controlling the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. “The blockades have only one consequence that we must never underestimate – they make poor people even poorer”
2. The examples of New Zealand and Australia, as well as South Korea and Italy show what measures are effective in reducing the transmission of the virus
3. More information about COVID-19 can be found on the TvoiLokony home page

The WHO does not look favorably on blocking the country

“At the World Health Organization, we do not advocate blockades as the primary means of controlling this virus,” David Nabarro, WHO’s COVID-19 Special Envoy told Spectator magazine. “We believe that the only time a blockade is justified is to buy time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance resources, protect exhausted health workers. In principle, however, we would prefer not to [impose a blockade] »- he added.

Nabarro pointed out that the levels of poverty and hunger in the world have increased dramatically as a result of restrictions imposed on societies due to fighting the pandemic. He said that “the blockages have only one consequence that we must never underestimate – they make poor people even poorer”.

Financial Express notes that as early as March 11, WHO director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that history does not know effective ways to control the pandemic, but nevertheless recommended blocking. By the end of March, 170 countries had closed their borders, and additional restrictions were in place in 140 countries (assembly restrictions, movement restrictions, etc.). The number of infections fluctuated around 881, and the number of deaths was 000. Today, the number of people infected with the coronavirus in the world reaches almost 43 million, and the number of deaths exceeded 000 million. Despite the lockdown, despite the halt of the economy and closing people at home.

In the initial phase of the pandemic, mathematical modeling experts and specialists suggested that the death toll would be catastrophic if it were not for the rapid introduction of restrictions to limit the transmission of the coronavirus. Increasing cases too fast could overwhelm hospital systems, so the initial strategy was to slow down transmission in the first place. It seemed obvious – isolation limits further infections.

In June, the National Center for Biotechnical Information released a study which concluded that preliminary evidence indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic could be contained by a lockdown. What has changed recently and why is closing the country not the best idea anymore?

Lockdown worked when we didn’t know anything

Introducing huge restrictions in the life of society – closing most branches of the economy, restricting the movement of people, assembly bans, distance orders, wearing protective masks – all this at the beginning of the pandemic was to make it spread more slowly and the rulers would have time to prepare strategy for the coming weeks and months. Nobody wanted to share the Italian or the Spanish script. There, the restrictions were introduced too late and were initially not complied with. The media message from that region had an impact on other countries. We wrote about Greece, which introduced a lockdown as soon as the first case was discovered in its country, fearing that the health care system would not bear the sudden burden.

As Nabarro, quoted earlier, noted, lockdown should be used to regroup forces and reorganize ruling activities. Allow time to grasp the situation by pursuing specific solutions. It seems obvious. Slowing down the transmission gives you time to develop your strategy. After a few months of the pandemic, scientists show that it doesn’t quite work that way. Most of the countries that introduced a total lockdown in the spring did limit the transmission of infections. An example is the Czech Republic, but also Poland, i.e. two countries that had relatively few infections per 100. residents during the pandemic’s spring peak.

But it was not possible to block economies indefinitely. The first restrictions were eased in May, then the borders were opened and the Europeans were allowed to go on the desired vacation, of course with sanitary regime. The summer holidays are over, September and the school year have started. As things seemed to be returning to normal, the number of new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections began to skyrocket and European governments began to consider lockdown again to flatten the infection curve and stave off the specter of a health system collapse. You might think that during the few months that the lockdown was in operation, the rulers did not do their homework and prepared for what the autumn / winter period would bring.

1. How will the pandemic develop in Poland? Analysis of mathematical models

Instead of a lockdown, specific actions

Yesterday we wrote about the countries that took control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Among them were, among others New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Japan. The first two countries, like most of the world, initially focused on closing borders, restricting the movement of communities and closing part of the economy. However, they did not stop there. Once they began to “reopen”, the authorities had precise plans to continue monitoring the course of the epidemic. They focused on testing and monitoring of infected people. Outbreaks of infections were immediately caught and isolated to prevent further transmission of the virus.

In June, the Heritage Foundation report was released, which analyzes the approach of 10 countries to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and shows which actions are most effective. The report shows that full blockades, such as those implemented in Italy or Norway, for example, are not as effective as action-based strategies as in the case of South Korea and Iceland. The comparison between New Zealand and Australia was also interesting. The two countries, despite their different COVID-19 policies (Australia took a less restrictive approach, according to the report), had similar rates of infection and death.

The report also compares South Korea and Italy, and the examples of these two countries clearly show what measures are effective in reducing the transmission of infections. The South Korean authorities have allowed much of the economy to remain open. Instead of closure, they chose to intensify the testing and isolation of infected individuals in hospitals or dedicated isolatories. In addition, they carried out extensive contact tracing processes. On July 22, South Korea recorded 13 cases of infection and 979 deaths.

Meanwhile, in Italy, despite the introduction of a strict lockdown, the virus spread rapidly. On July 22, Italy recorded 245 cases and 590 deaths. Incomparable more than in a similar number of inhabitants of Korea.

Scientists who signed the so-called the Great Barrington declaration. They are in favor of directing efforts to protect people at risk while encouraging others to return to normal.

«The current lockdown policy has a devastating effect on short- and long-term public health. Outcomes include lower childhood immunization rates, worsening outcomes for cardiovascular disease, less cancer screening, and worsening mental health. Maintaining the blockades until the vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage »- we read in the declaration.

Zobacz: Thousands of experts warn against COVID-19 policies. Will cause “irreparable damage”

Governments must consider all possibilities when taking action to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Ideally, they should actually use lockdown, if it comes to it, to regroup activities, devise and implement a specific strategy. Otherwise, nothing will come of it, as the virologist Dr. Tomasz Dziecistkowski emphasized in an interview with Medonet.

– Closing the public for 4-6 weeks in apartments is not a good solution. I don’t know what people would live for then. Yes, during the lockdown, the number of infections will drop dramatically. However, it will not help us, because sooner or later we will return to normal life activity. Our resilience will be the same as at the beginning of the pandemic. We will also be susceptible to infection, so after this time the number of infections may start to rise again.

And thus history will come full circle.

The editorial board recommends:

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2. Europe is back at the “epicenter” of the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO warns
3. Alarming data from Europe: deaths are on the rise. Are we in danger of a repeat of April?

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