Doctor: We do not know at what stage the epidemic in Poland is

A weekly report by the Ministry of Health brought another record for the sixth wave of COVID-19. Is this the peak already or are we still ahead? The ministerial scenarios predict that the apogee may reach this or next week. Doctor Bartosz Fiałek, whom we asked for an opinion, says straightforwardly: we do not know at what stage the COVID-19 epidemic in our country is. In an interview with Medonet, he explained why.

1. On August 12, the minister of health informed that the peak of the summer wave could take place this or next week
2. Bartosz Fiałek reminds that the concept of wave peak is conventional. “There is no one specific day when we reach the maximum”
3. The doctor also emphasizes that «it is impossible to 100 percent. with certainty to determine how dynamically and in what direction the pathogen will evolve, and also how the disease caused by it will proceed »
4. However, the biggest problem, in his opinion, is the insufficient number of tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection
5. “We do not use tools that can control the course of the plague,” he emphasizes
6. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

When is the peak of the summer wave in Poland? Two remarks by the doctor

The weekly report of the Ministry of Health, published on August 10, brought almost 25. new cases – 3 thousand more than before. This is another record-breaking week of the summer wave. Is the last one? At the end of July, the health minister predicted that the peak would be in the second half of August. On August 12, he informed that it may take place this week or next and will amount to an average of 3,5-4 thousand on a weekly basis. cases of infections daily.

How does the doctor see the situation? We asked Bartosz Fiałek, popularizer of medical knowledge about COVID-19 about it. Before answering, he drew attention to two important points.

– It should be assumed that the concept of wave peak is arbitrary. There is no one specific day when we reach the maximum (we can only say about the day with the highest number of infections in retrospect) – the doctor notes. – The peak most often persists during the period in which we record a significantly increased number of cases of disease.

Another specialist’s remark: – You can’t with 100 percent. with certainty to determine how dynamically and in what direction the pathogen will evolve, as well as how the disease caused by it will proceed. These are phenomena that can only be talked about on the basis of probability. Nature is unpredictable, and the new coronavirus is changing so dynamically that it is difficult to make unambiguous predictions as to what epidemiological place we will be in in a few months.

The COVID-19 epidemic in Poland. Bartosz Fiałek about the biggest problem

Bartosz Fiałek draws attention to one more problem – the biggest one. We are also seeing it in Poland. – We are currently performing insufficient tests for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. As a result, the share of positive results in the pool of all tests fluctuates around 30%, and on some days it significantly exceeds this value – says the doctor. – On this basis, it can be concluded that in general we do not know at what stage the COVID-19 epidemic in our country is.

– We do not use tools that allow us to control the course of the plague. We do not test in the number necessary to obtain an overview of whether the COVID-19 wave is rising, whether we are at its peak, or whether we have started to descend – the specialist lists.

– Many cases of the disease are missing from us, so we are not able to reliably determine our place on the map of the development of the epidemiological threat related to SARS-CoV-2.

The COVID-19 epidemic in Poland. “Forecasts are heavily erroneous”

– Of course, in Poland we encounter the opinions of certain politicians or other people who, based on the available statistical data, try to assess what phase of the COVID-19 epidemic we are currently or will be in – says Bartosz Fiałek and adds: – In my opinion, however, these forecasts are burdened with a large cognitive bias. This is because the basis that led to the establishment of specific forecasts is flawed, not entirely reliable data. Conclusions drawn on the basis of incomplete, unreliable data are also unreliable.

On the one hand, we have unpredictable forces of nature (uncertainty as to the direction of the virus evolution), on the other hand, testing for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is disproportionate to the needs (which means that the percentage of positive results is very high, and we do not know the course of the COVID-19 epidemic). – In such a situation, making forecasts about the future development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland is often incorrect – says the doctor.

– I would like to emphasize that what we hear about the current epidemiological situation in the country is not a lie. However, based on unreliable or incomplete premises, one cannot draw reliable conclusions – as I have already said, they will also be incomplete and burdened with errors – he reminds.

The peak of the COVID-19 wave. What do the experiences of other countries say?

At what stage is the summer epidemic wave in our country? – With all these variables in mind, it is hard for me to say when we will record the peak of the current epidemic wave related to COVID-19 in Poland – says Bartosz Fiałek directly. – We can certainly say that the epidemic wave continues here. However, are we currently at the summit, before the summit or just after – I cannot say unequivocally – he admits, adding: – In order to realistically assess the current status of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland, we would first of all have to perform many more tests for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

In one sentence, until we start using tools that will allow us to reliably assess the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland, we will not be able to reliably determine our status.

And what do the experiences of other countries say? We know that the COVID-19 epidemic wave lasts roughly six to eight weeks. The peak takes about three to four weeks. – Following this trail and following our own experiences from previous waves, we can say that we will probably find ourselves in the vicinity of this summit in a moment, and then we will descend from this summit for two to four weeks – says Bartosz Fiałek. – If, of course, nothing happens, eg another, “super-infectious” variant does not appear, and this cannot be predicted. However, I would like to emphasize that these are general conclusions, and they do not have to translate into 100%. all countries or all epidemic waves.