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In Poland, over 19 thousand have already died due to COVID-21,5. people, which means that the death rate related to COVID-19 in relation to the number of confirmed cases currently does not exceed 2%. This is a low figure compared to the mortality rate during the SARS or MERS epidemics. However, as experts from the Polish Society of Epidemiologists and Doctors of Infectious Diseases argue, this indicator gives us a false message. COVID-19 is actually more dangerous.
- The actual rate of deaths due to COVID-19 may be several times higher than the available statistics indicate
- Among patients hospitalized due to COVID-19, the overall mortality was 6,2%. and increased with the severity of the clinical condition on admission to the hospital
- The highest mortality rate is recorded among COVID-19 patients over 80 years of age
- More information can be found on the TvoiLokony home page
Calculation of the COVID-19 fatality rate
Prof. dr hab. Robert Flisiak points out that the relatively low death rate for COVID-19 (about 2 percent in Poland) compared to other epidemics caused by coronaviruses gives “a false message suggesting the mild nature of COVID-19”. If we compare the mortality due to MERS, which was 45%, or SARS – 10%, 2%. in the case of COVID-19, this is really not much. It is worth considering, however, that when calculating the mortality rate for SARS and MERS, reference was not made to the results of laboratory tests, but to the registered number of overt clinical cases.
According to the epidemiological definition, mortality should be calculated as the number of deaths caused by a given disease divided by the number of patients suffering from that disease.
“This means that the actual mortality associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, calculated correctly, will be several times higher than that resulting from the daily reports of the Ministry of Health, relating to the number of positive results recorded,” the report reads.
As part of the SARSTer study, the Polish Society of Epidemiologists and Doctors of Infectious Diseases has prepared a report in which they presented the mortality of hospitalized patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection. The analysis covers the data as of December 6 and includes data from 2449 patients. What was the overall mortality in the study group?
See also: The second wave of the epidemic hit Poland harder than Spain or Germany
High mortality among hospitalized patients
According to the analyzes, the overall mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 registered in the SARSTer database was 6,2%, and taking into account only the adult population – as much as 7,3%. “The percentage of deaths increased with the severity of the clinical condition on admission to hospital”.
Among 1017 adult patients with saturation below 95% 125 people died, which is 12,3 percent. mortality rate. In the case of adult patients requiring mechanical ventilation, this indicator was as high as 67%. (independent of age and clinical baseline).
Source: Polish Society of Epidemiologists and Doctors of Infectious Diseases
Higher age – higher risk of dying from COVID-19
The highest rate of mortality due to COVID-19 in the studied population was recorded among patients over 80 years of age – 18,8%. In the group of patients between 70 and 80 years of age, the mortality rate was 15,2%, and in the group of 60-70 years – 7,1%. The fact that SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection is much more dangerous for people over 65 is confirmed once again.
Source: Polish Society of Epidemiologists and Doctors of Infectious Diseases
At the beginning of the week, PTEiLChZ also issued an open letter to the president, prime minister and minister of health with an appeal to start efforts to obtain a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as possible. According to experts, each day of delay means another several hundred deaths due to coronavirus infection“That is up to 15 premature deaths a month from COVID-19 alone, yet people also die as a result of restricted access to health services related to other conditions.”
According to the Ministry of Health today, 19 people are hospitalized due to COVID-19, and 131 patients are under ventilators.
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