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Wastewater analysis will detect coronavirus pathogens in the waste of up to 2 million people. More and more perfect tools will make it possible to determine on which street, and even in what block, a sick person lives, and then impose a precise quarantine, even before the first symptoms appear. Will sewage research prove to be a secret weapon against the second wave of the pandemic?
After many weeks of restrictions and isolation, many countries are deciding to slowly and gradually ease the restrictions, to the joy of the citizens. This joy, however, is only partial. It is almost certain that the coronavirus will return to us in the fall in the form of the second wave of the epidemic, Focus informs.
The second wave is coming, no vaccine
Epidemiologists admit that the situation could become as severe in the fall as it was during the first phase of the epidemic for at least two reasons. First of all, autumn is a time of increased activity of viruses that attack the respiratory tract, as well as decreased immunity for many of us. Besides, none of the societies has yet reached the so-called herd immunity, which would provide a sense of security against the virus. We can speak of herd immunity when min. 65% of a country’s population will become resistant to the pathogen. Meanwhile, now, in most European countries, this percentage fluctuates around 5-6 percent. Third, there is still no coronavirus vaccine, and the most optimistic forecasts estimate that it will happen in the fall.
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Epidemiologists are looking for ways to prevent the second wave of the epidemic from being as severe as the first. One of the ideas is… sewage research. More specifically – their feces. It is known that the feces of people infected with the coronavirus contain particles of the pathogen. Also those who pass the disease asymptomatically.
Wastewater testing to bring a pandemic under control?
Focus cites data from Europe and North America that suggest that every person infected with SARS-CoV-2 expels millions if not billions of viral genomes into wastewater daily. This translates into 0,15 to 141,5 million viral genomes per liter of generated wastewater.
Epidemiologists therefore want to use modern methods of wastewater analysis, specifically – the real-time polymerase chain reaction technique with reverse transcription, RT-PCR.
Under the most difficult conditions, wastewater analysis allows to identify one sick person among the wastewater of 114 people, in the most beautiful – even among the wastewater of 2 million people.
Importantly and worth emphasizing – the analysis of wastewater will detect the disease before the patient develops its symptoms, so it will allow the sanitary services to prepare for action.
Statistically speaking, it is possible to track the coronavirus particles of a sick person in the wastewater from 114 people. This is for the worst possible control conditions. In the best possible scenario, it will be possible to find the infected even in the wastewater from 2 million healthy people. The increase in virus concentration in the wastewater usually precedes the onset of clinical symptoms, so medical services will have time to prepare for appropriate actions before the specific patient knows the diagnosis.
Check: How many Europeans wash their hands after using the toilet?
Wastewater tests: cheap and precise
In addition, the analysis of sewage will help to determine in which district, on what street and even in which building the virus carrier is located. So it will be possible to quarantine quickly and accurately before the disease spreads to neighbors and others.
According to the quoted data, the US plans to install sensors in 15 thousand. sewage treatment plants, which will allow even 70% of the American population to be supervised. The cost of such an operation would be PLN 225. dollars, far less than the genetic screening tests that are used today.
There are wastewater tests available in the UK which cost less than £ 1 each. The low cost, however, is not their only advantage: they are also easy to use, do not require specialist knowledge, and after contact with the sewage sample, they simply turn green (presence of pathogens) or blue (none). British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already announced that the tests will be used in the prevention of the next wave of the pandemic. Israel and the US also want to use the British tests. France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and Italy are also interested in this form of research.
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