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The issue of building natural population immunity as a tool in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic keeps coming back, constantly arousing hot emotions. Now the discussion has revived in the US. An analysis has just been released showing how many victims it would require to implement such a target in the US.
- The strategy of building natural herd immunity assumes an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infections in a larger group of people at low risk, while protecting people at high risk.
- Public health experts in the US are appalled by this idea. They consider such a plan disastrous
- If 70 percent. the population of the United States falls ill (on average over 229 million), much more than one million people may die from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 10 percent. those infected may require intensive care
- WHO chief: herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from the virus, not by exposing them to it
- For more up-to-date information on the coronavirus epidemic, visit the Onet homepage.
What is herd immunity?
To begin with, let us recall what exactly natural herd immunity is and what we mean by “herd immunity threshold”. Group immunity, also known as population immunity, group immunity, is a state in which non-immune people are protected because the majority of society has already produced antibodies. This is possible thanks to the vaccination of as many people as possible or – and this is crucial in the concept of natural herd immunity – due to the fact that a large group of people underwent a given disease, in this case COVID-19.
The strategy of building natural herd immunity assumes an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infections in a larger group of people at low risk, while protecting people at high risk. Due to the presence of immunized people in a given population, the risk of developing a given disease is significantly reduced among non-immunized people.
- How long does resistance to COVID-19 last? Scientists dispel doubts
How many people must be infected and acquire immunity to be able to speak of natural population immunity? This question is answered by the herd immunity threshold – it is the percentage of immunized people in the entire population, thanks to which the number of new cases begins to decline. From what we know so far about SARS-CoV-2, to achieve this state, the threshold of herd immunity must be 60 – 70 percent. Experts emphasize that as more information becomes available about possible reinfections and the effectiveness of approved vaccines, this threshold will change.
Experts have long emphasized that waiting for the development of natural herd immunity is not an acceptable solution – takes too long and involves too many victims. Nevertheless, the topic returns from time to time. Currently in the USA.
Achieving natural herd immunity – a “catastrophic plan”
As Sciencealert reminds us, some people, including the Donald Trump administration, have suggested allowing the coronavirus to spread. This would be a way to hasten the end of the pandemic. Many public health experts are appalled by this idea. Whether or not natural herd immunity can be achieved in the near future, they consider such a plan disastrous.
Experts note that if these 70 percent. the population of the United States falls ill (on average over 229 million), significantly more than one million people may die from SARS-CoV-2 infection, and about 10 percent. those infected may require intensive care.
How many Americans can have COVID-19 antibodies? A survey conducted in September at Stanford University showed that this percentage is about 9 percent. US population. The country’s leading infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, has announced that achieving herd immunity is not “imminent”.
By November 15, the CDC officially reported over 10 million new cases of COVID-19 (according to worldometers in the US, there are currently around 2 million infected with SARS-CoV-21,8). The increase in the number of cases recorded is probably underestimated. Many people infected with the new coronavirus do not have symptoms and do not seek medical attention. The disease may also be associated with other respiratory infections (in addition, post-disease immunity may decline over time).
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Nevertheless, antibody testing is recognized as a helpful way of estimating the true rate of infection in society. Experts point out that more are needed to successfully monitor a pandemic, even after vaccines are introduced.
WHO head: herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from the virus
Sciencealert recalls that in November 2020 alone, the United States reported more COVID-19 cases than most countries throughout the year. December brought even more infections, though the country has already approved several safe and effective vaccines.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Officially, about 19 died in the US due to COVID-370. people. Unfortunately, this data is probably underestimated. A new analysis found that around 35 percent. deaths due to COVID-19 are not reported.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Experts agree that the only way to protect people is to vaccinate society as soon as possible. In the opinion of Dr. Fauci’s “true herd immunity” would probably require vaccination of up to 85 percent. population. You may also need booster doses.
- Natural herd immunity. Polish scientists: dangerous and the costs will be terrible
Finally, let us recall the words of the Director General of the World Health Organization regarding herd immunity. – Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as an outbreak response strategy, let alone a pandemic. This is scientifically and ethically problematic. Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from the virus, not by exposing them to it, emphasizes Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
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