Coronavirus in Poland. What awaits us until March? The Americans created three scenarios

Over 19 people have died in Poland because of COVID-9. people. Within four months, this number could increase almost fivefold. According to the latest forecast of the American Institute of Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME), 2021 will die of COVID-19 by March 44. One scenario says so. According to another, this number may be as high as 488 thousand. What does the development of accidents depend on? We present three variants for Poland developed by scientists from IHME.

1. The Institute of Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME) has created another model for the development of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the world. It also covers Poland
2. The IMHE model presents three variants: with the current state, with easing of restrictions and with the widespread use of masks
3. Given the current state of affairs until March 2021, 19 people may die from COVID-44 in Poland – according to the IHME forecast
4. The worst-case scenario assumes that if the restrictions were eased now, the daily number of deaths could reach up to 900 people
5. The most gracious and optimistic is the variant assuming that at least 95 percent. of us wear masks, he is the most kind to us
6. You can find more about the coronavirus on the TvoiLokony home page

COVID-19 – what awaits us in the future? IHME forecasts for countries around the world

Let us remind you that the Institute of Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington deals with, inter alia, forecasting the course of a pandemic in various countries. Models of the development of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have been presented in the world since spring, they relate to the development of the situation over the next four months (according to the authors of the model, it is possible to observe over this period whether the given indications have brought results).

1. Where is COVID-19 easiest to catch? American scientists have developed an infection risk model

Poland was also included in the analyzes of the epidemic situation.

The model developed by IMHE presents three variants: the current state of play, the forecast for alleviating the restrictions and the fate of the epidemic with the widespread use of masks, reaching 95%.

Explaining the creation of so many forecasts, the authors of the model say that in this way they are trying to help decision-makers (government officials, hospital administrators) in planning the coming months and thus taking action to change the course of the pandemic. ‘We have developed three different scenarios that can help policymakers understand how different policy decisions can affect the trajectory of a pandemic,’ say the model’s developers.

Forecast for Poland. How many people can die from COVID-19 by March. Three possible scenarios

What development of events has the Institute of Measurements and Assessment of Health Condition predicted for Poland? Before presenting possible scenarios, we would like to remind you that it is worth approaching forecasts with great caution. Planning the epidemic almost four months in advance is burdened with a high risk of error, and many assumptions made by researchers do not have to come true.

Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/poland?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

Taking into account the current state of affairs, the IHME model predicts that 2021 will die of COVID-19 in Poland by March 44 (the previous forecast for Poland, prepared at the end of October, assumed that the number of COVID-488 fatalities in our country would be 19 by February 1. 32 people). According to the forecast, with the current assumptions, the daily number of deaths in December will amount to 555,5 and then it will decline, reaching 167,9 in March.

Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/poland?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

What could happen if the restrictions were relaxed? The restrictions included in the model concern, inter alia, educational institutions (primary, secondary and higher schools provide distance learning), only companies offering (locally defined) “basic services” (cinemas, museums, shopping centers, restaurants offer take-away services), all people are advised to stay at home, with except for meeting basic needs.

In this scenario, the predictions are the worst. About 2 thousand people could die from SARS-CoV-2021 infection by March 86,8. people. While on December 1, the daily number of deaths may reach 555,5, similarly to the previous variant, from then on it will only get worse.

The worst situation will be in mid-January, with more than 897 deaths a day. From that moment on, the model predicts a decline in the number of fatalities – as of March 1, it may amount to approximately 542.

The third variant, assuming that at least 95 percent. of us will wear masks in public spaces, he is the most kind to us. Under such conditions, the number of deaths by March 1 may reach 37,1 thousand, i.e. by over 7,3 thousand. lower than in the current situation scenario. In terms of how many people will die each day, the model predicts that by December 1 the numbers will rise to around 534,3. After that, however, the situation will improve. In March it may reach the level of 107,5.

The above forecast is another proof that the development of the epidemic depends to a large extent on our behavior. Correct wearing of masks, keeping distance and hand hygiene should be an absolute basis in our daily protection against SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection.

You may be interested in:

1. The latest Polish recommendations for the treatment of COVID-19. Prof. Flisiak: it depends on the four stages of the disease
2. The CDC recommends the widespread use of face masks. Even in the spring, some experts claimed that they should only be worn by patients
3. How does the coronavirus affect the lungs? Scientists checked it on living mini-lungs

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