Controversy over masks, the second wave of diseases and recoveries. Dr. Paweł Grzesiowski on the coronavirus epidemic in Poland

How long will the pandemic last? When should we expect a second wave of cases? Can survivors re-contract the coronavirus? In what situations do masks do more harm than good? These and other questions are answered by Dr. Paweł Grzesiowski, a specialist in the field of immunology and infection therapy, in an interview with Medexpress.

The peak of the coronavirus epidemic in Poland is still ahead of us

Experts draw different models for the development of the epidemic. There is still no peak in the number of cases in Poland. In an interview with Medexpress, Dr. Paweł Grzesiowski explains how the process of spreading the coronavirus can be described from an epidemiological perspective.

– In all countries with epidemics, i.e. mass diseases, and the virus is immunologically unknown to the population, the epidemic is exponential, so the rapid increase in the number of cases reaches a certain peak, and then these diseases decrease in intensity – so that after a few months they slow down almost to zero – explains the specialist.

– Of course, the shape of this curve can be very different. In some cases, the number of cases may reach 100. within a month, and in other cases it may be 10. It all depends on the virus’s ability to infect, which is the strength with which it is able to infect, we call it the infectivity rate. In the case of SARS-CoV-2, this ratio is between 2 and 3, so it is moderate: higher than in influenza, but, for example, much lower than in measles – adds Dr. Grzesiowski.

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Do the masks protect us from infection?

The development of the epidemic depends very much on the actions that will be taken to slow down the rate of the spread of the virus. For the so-called deceleration techniques include mass quarantine, ban on mass events, breaks in the work of schools, kindergartens, nurseries, and all public institutions. In Poland, from April 16, an additional type of protection will apply – covering the mouth and nose, not necessarily with a mask (a piece of ordinary cloth is enough). Dr. Grzesiowski believes that masks worn by asymptomatic people must be treated more as a psychological element than as medical protection.

– Remember that cotton masks do not actually stop the virus. Of course, they are worn by people in interpersonal contacts and they reduce the amount of exhaled aerosol, but they are not filtering masks. If we assumed that masks with a HEPA filter give 100 percent. protection, a cotton mask gives 1 percent. – let’s be aware of this – says the expert in an interview for Medexpress.

Dr. Grzesiowski emphasizes that protective masks have a useful life. If we breathe through the mask for too long, it will become damp, soaked with water vapor and saliva. Such a mask should be washed at a temperature of at least 60 degrees, otherwise it will be a source of infection. Disposable masks should be thrown away after several minutes of wearing, but the problem is that people wear them for 8-10 hours. Such masks pose a serious health risk.

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The second wave of cases is a realistic scenario. Will it be different from the first?

Dr. Grzesiowski believes that if the mathematical models currently drawn by epidemiologists are correct, then the first wave of cases will end approximately 3-4 months after the first confirmed case (i.e. at the end of June).

– Then we have a period of about 3, 4, 5 months and the second wave begins. It usually comes seasonally then, so we could expect the virus to return in October, again 3-4 months of activity and a large number of cases. It obviously depends on how many people get sick in the first season. If 50 percent gets sick in the first season. of the human population, the virus will have a much more difficult task than in the first wave, and if 20-30 percent becomes sick in the first wave. population, the second wave may be much larger than the first – explains the specialist.

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Will it be warmer, will the number of infections be reduced?

When asked if one could hope for a drop in the number of infections when thermometers began to show higher temperatures, Dr. Grzesiowski replied that all viruses that cause respiratory infections are seasonal, so the same should be expected in the case of coronavirus. He stressed, however, that we may not observe this in the first epidemic wave, because this virus is immunologically unknown to us. As a consolation, he added:

– There is one more aspect that makes us think hopefully and positively about summer, because the virus works much worse at temperatures above 10 degrees and in high humidity, so if these temperatures change and we actually have higher temperatures throughout the day and night and the higher the humidity, the less virus in the environment.

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There is no evidence that a healer can get sick a second time

Concerns are emerging that convalescents are failing to develop immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and are contracting a second infection. Dr. Grzesiowski argues that these fears are not justified.

We literally have a few descriptions of this kind of situation from Asia where someone was negative and then positive again. It does not have to be that the person has become re-infected, it could be that e.g. the test was false negative, or there was a transient decline in viral replication, or the patient was discharged too early and he was in fact still sick. For the moment we have no epidemiological premises to believe that we are infected several times.

The specialist explains that there is even evidence that contradicts this theory. Studies have been carried out in Asia, which show that up to 30 percent. of the population may have already been infected because they have antibodies. A very interesting experiment was also done. Monkeys have been infected with the coronavirus and have developed immunity after passing the disease. A month later, they failed to re-infect them.

Coronavirus in Poland – the biggest concerns

Due to the current epidemic situation, Dr. Grzesiowski is most concerned about the problems of medical and care institutions.

– What is happening in hospitals and nursing homes or nursing homes is our main problem at the moment, because these people [staying there – ed. ed.] cannot be isolated, cannot be left at home. They are in their homes, relying on the care of third parties – says the doctor.

The specialist points out that the facilities he mentioned were always less subsidized, there is a lack of personal protective equipment and staff. These are the places where there are many elderly people who are burdened with various diseases and therefore are at risk of severe COVID-19 disease and death. This is a problem not only for Poland, but for all developed countries. According to Dr. Grzesiowski, all measures should be directed at preventing infections within these institutions.

More in an interview on the channel «Medexpress».

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Have a question about the coronavirus? Send them to the following address: [email protected]. You will find a daily updated list of answers HERE: Coronavirus – frequently asked questions and answers.