Scientists have traced exactly how the Spanish spread around the world in 1918 before it became the greatest pandemic in human history. They also analyzed the effectiveness of the remedial procedures undertaken at that time. However, so far few have asked questions about the relationship of weather conditions to this pandemic. Now the situation has changed.
- Historical sources speak of unusually rainy and cool weather during the First World War. Research has shown that it was a climatic anomaly every hundred years
- Based on the results of an analysis of the composition of the ice from an Alpine glacier, climate change has been linked to the Spanish pandemic
- Scientists are now observing similar climatic anomalies as in the years 1914-1919. They are undoubtedly linked to the outbreaks of infectious diseases, not only the coronavirus
- You can read more about the coronavirus on the TvoiLokony home page
Cold and rainy weather accelerated the Spanish pandemic
The outbreak of the Spanish pandemic coincided with the last years of the First World War. Historians have confirmed that the then prevailing weather conditions – heavy rains and low temperatures – influenced the outcome of many battles. In contrast, modern research reveals that cold and rainy weather was a climatic anomaly that occurred every hundred years. In the 1914th century, it was in the years 1919-XNUMX.
– Based on photos and eyewitness stories, we know that the weather in Europe was really rainy then, and soldiers sometimes died drowning in the mud flooding the trenches. Now we’re hearing about a six-year anomaly, says Alexander More, a research fellow in Harvard’s history department and an associate professor at the University of Maine’s Institute of Climate Change.
To reconstruct the weather conditions prevailing in Europe during World War I, a team of over a dozen scientists analyzed an ice sample taken from an Alpine glacier. After melting it, the chemical composition of the water vapor was tested. This type of survey is extremely precise, it can even determine the changes of the seasons.
The researchers then compared the glacier data with monthly death statistics, precipitation and temperature records. They found that the persistent cold and rainy weather during the successive winters of 1915, 1916 and 1918 was due to the influx of unusually large masses of sea air from the North Atlantic. During World War I, mortality in Europe peaked threefold, with each increase in deaths occurring during or shortly after cooling combined with heavy rains.
– In the fall of 1918, the surge in the number of deaths occurred twice. It was the second, most deadly, wave of the Spanish pandemic, says Professor More, a public health specialist at Long Island University. – If we wanted to forecast the course of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic now, we can treat the situation from a hundred years ago as a warning.
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The study also shows that this six-year weather anomaly may have disrupted the migration patterns of several bird species, including mallard ducks, which are the main carriers of the H1N1 flu virus. More ducks remained in Europe for the winter, and the flu spread to humans through water contaminated with their faeces.
The hypothesis that heavy rainfall accelerated the spread of the virus sounds promising, says Philip Landrigan of Boston College, who linked the study. – During the coronavirus pandemic, we learned that viruses likely persist longer in humid air. Therefore, if the air in Europe was very humid during World War I, this accelerated the transmission.
Climate change and COVID-19
The 1918 study showed remarkable parallels with the current health crisis. In many countries, the second wave of the pandemic is just starting or the extended first wave is underway, and at the same time in the northern hemisphere, autumn is cool and cloudy. However, climate change adversely affects not only the old continent, for example hurricanes of unprecedented strength rage over the Atlantic Ocean.
– Two crises coincided. Man-made climate change and the epidemic of infectious diseases – says prof. More. – Undoubtedly, weather conditions influence the likelihood of an outbreak of infectious diseases. It was so in the past and it will be so in the future.
According to prof. More, we are now seeing similar climatic anomalies that caused the escalation of the Spanish pandemic in 1918. Moreover, COVID-19 is not the only contagious disease affected by climate change.
– Climate is associated with many other epidemics, especially if it was man-made. For example, we now observe mosquitoes that carry Zika and dengue in places they have never reached before, he adds. – The same can be said for a variety of bacteria and diseases.
Climate scientists say the links between climate change and outbreaks of infectious diseases need to be looked at. We should also analyze how climate problems – violent storms, fires and the homelessness that arise from natural disasters – create the conditions for the spread of infectious diseases more easily.
– There is no doubt that they are related to each other – said prof. More. However, to better understand these links, more interdisciplinary research is needed.
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