British Coronavirus Mutation More Deadly? The most important facts

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The British variant of the coronavirus “apart from spreading faster (…) may be associated with higher mortality,” said Boris Johnson a few days ago. This information raised further concerns about this mutation, the more so as it has already reached at least 60 countries around the world, including Poland. Why the British variant of SARS-CoV-2 could be more deadly?

1. Scientists: the B.1.1.7 mutation could be 30 – 40 percent. more lethal than previously circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants
2. The researchers stress, however, that this is early and uncertain data. More information is expected in the next few weeks
3. The potential higher mortality rate for the British variant may be due to the same set of mutations that make it more contagious
4. For more up-to-date information on the coronavirus epidemic, visit the Onet homepage.

British Prime Minister: new variant may be associated with higher mortality

The British variant of the coronavirus (referred to as B.1.1.7) was first identified in September 2020. The British Minister of Health announced its detection on December 14. Since then, the presence of the pathogen has been confirmed in at least 60 countries and territories around the world (data from the World Health Organization two weeks ago). Approx. On January 21, information appeared that the British mutation is also in Poland (the genXone Laboratory identified it in a patient from Lesser Poland).

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It is estimated that the mutation from Great Britain is 30 to 70 percent. more contagious than the original coronavirus. Scientists emphasized that this does not automatically mean that it is more dangerous, but that it favors the infection of more people. The words of the British prime minister a few days ago sowed doubts in this regard.

“We were informed today that, in addition to spreading faster (…), the new (virus) variant may be associated with higher mortality,” Johnson said at a news conference in Downing Street on January 21. Scientists suspect that the B.1.1.7 mutation may be up to 30-40 percent. more lethal compared with previously circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2. On the other hand, they emphasize that this assessment is based on early data.

British mutation could be more deadly? Findings

But on what basis do scientists suspect that the British mutation B.1.1.7 may be more lethal? Two independent studies were presented in mid-January to the Government Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (NERVTAG). They were conducted by scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London. Researchers matched data from people who tested positive for coronavirus (but not in a hospital) with data on deaths. The analyzes showed that the risk of death related to a new mutation is approx. 30%. larger than the previous variants.

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Analyzes of Exeter University and Public Health England also showed a higher number of deaths related to the B.1.1.7 mutation. In both cases, the percentage was even higher.

From these studies, NERVTAG concluded that there is a “real possibility” that infection with the new variant is associated with an increased risk of death compared to previously circulating variants. – Unfortunately, it looks like this virus could be both more infectious and potentially more lethal – commented on this information by prof. John Edmunds of the LSHTM Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases.

How reliable are the results of the analyzes presented to the NERVTAG scientists? Scientists emphasize that this is early and uncertain data. More information is expected in the next few weeks.

Prof. John Edmunds believes these results were “statistically significant”, although the research used information from people tested in the community. Meanwhile, most people who die from COVID-19 go straight to hospitals and get tested there. Scientists do not yet have the data from these institutions. According to NERVTAG, this delay may be the reason why no evidence was found of an increase in hospitalization of people with the new variant.

NERVTAG also notes that the mortality data used in the study cover only 8 percent. all deaths that occurred during the research period. The results “may therefore not be representative of the entire population”.

Why could mutation B.1.1.7 be more deadly?

The potential higher mortality rate of the British coronavirus mutation may be the result of the same set of mutations that increase its contagiousness (mainly changes in the structure of the so-called S protein, which creates characteristic protrusions on the surface of the virus and mediates the penetration of the pathogen into our cells). So far, these are the scientists’ suspicions – further research is needed to verify them.

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One mutation is of particular concern to scientists – it increases the virus’s ability to ‘attach’ to human cells. Peter Horby, head of NERVTAG and professor of infectious disease at the University of Oxford, notes that this may facilitate infection. – The faster spread of the pathogen among the lung cells may increase the rate of disease progression. Inflammation can progress faster than the body can respond, and this could explain both features of the virus, the scientist suspects.

A virologist at the French Institut Pasteur, Bjorn Meye, points to another problem. There is evidence that people infected with variant B.1.1.7 have a higher virus load – that is, more viruses “reproduce” in their bodies. “Viruses take over infected cells, turning them into virus factories,” explained recently head of the CDC’s Advanced Molecular Detection Office, Gregory Armstrong.

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Referring to the higher viral load, Bjorn Meyer suspects that “the virus as such may not have become more lethal, but may have evolved to multiply even more efficiently in organisms, thus causing greater harm to the patient”.

What about vaccine effectiveness? A preliminary study this month in the UK and the Netherlands showed that variant B.1.1.7 “would not be able to avoid the protective effects of current vaccines”. This is definitely good news.

Finally, let us quote a comment by Dr. Piotr Rzymski from the Medical University of Karol Marcinkowski in Poznań, who a few days after the words of the British Prime Minister told PAP: – Careful research is needed to determine whether the British variant is more lethal. At this stage, giving such information is spreading fear.

The expert recalled that previous epidemiological findings did not indicate that infections with the British variant of the coronavirus B.1.17 were associated with higher mortality. – Hence, such information should be passed on by politicians and their advisers only when there is strong evidence supporting them. I do not understand the sense of such statements at this stage, unless British politicians want to blame the tragic epidemic situation in the UK on the virus – because it is supposed to be more infectious and, to make matters worse, more deadly – said the specialist.

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