At what point in the epidemic are we? New R indicator for Poland. Three bad news

Another weekly report by the Ministry of Health and another record for the sixth wave of COVID-19. The last seven days are almost 25. new cases – 3 thousand more than before. The expected peak of the summer wave is getting closer. The question is, exactly at what point in the epidemic are we? The answer comes with the current R indicator, which becomes worrying again.

1. The R indicator tells us how many healthy people can be infected by one person infected with the coronavirus
2. When the value of the R index does not exceed 1, it can be assumed that the epidemic is getting weaker, if it exceeds – it is growing stronger
3. According to the Ministry of Health data sent to Medonet, the current R indicator for Poland is 1,18. This is not good news. The situation in nine Polish voivodships is also worrying
4. More information can be found on the Onet homepage.

Current R index for Poland. What is happening in voivodships?

The Ministry of Health sent the MedTvoiLokony editorial office the latest R (virus reproduction rate, RO) for Poland. It is currently 1,18. This is an average number from all voivodships.

The epidemic develops the fastest in the Podlaskie Voivodeship. The R indicator is 1,33 there. The second largest region is the Kujawsko-Pomorskie Province (1,32), and the third – Podkarpackie Province (1,30). This is exactly the situation in the provinces:

Source: Ministry of Health

Current R index for Poland. What worries the most?

The first bad news is that Poland’s current R is still above one. As mentioned above, it is a sign that more and more people are getting infected from each other – the COVID-19 epidemic is growing.

Another worrying issue is the increase in RO compared to the end of July. As of July 30, the reproductive rate of the virus was 1,16, today it is 1,18. If we take into account the longer period, it is already more optimistic. At the end of July, the weekly R index for Poland was 1,28, currently it is 1,21; within 14 days it is 1,41 and 1,35, respectively.

There is another cause for concern. This is the situation in provinces. In nine, RO is higher than at the end of July. These are the following voivodships (in random order): Podlaskie, Świętokrzyskie, Opolskie, Lubuskie, Zachodniopomorskie, Dolnośląskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Warmińsko-Mazurskie and Wielkopolskie. Of course, there are also provinces where RO is lower. This is the case in Podkarpacie, Małopolska, Łódzkie and Pomorskie provinces. Details are presented in the table below (alphabetical order).

Dr. Grzesiowski: we have a rapidly growing “ghost wave”

When assessing the epidemic situation in Poland, it is worth remembering that the monitoring of coronavirus infections is “only conventional”. – In fact, testing is gone, we have rather “on demand” testing when someone suspects an infection, or self-testing – Dr. Aneta Afelt reminded me in an interview with Medonet. – So it is not known what number of infections we are dealing with. Recently, the immunologist Dr. Paweł Grzesiowski referred to this in social media: we have a rapidly growing “ghost wave”, because according to official statistics – peace “.

– I think that the official statistics say that there are about 5 a day. positive test results are actually about 10 percent. falling ill with COVID-19. I estimate that at the moment it may be approx. 30-40 thousand. new cases daily – estimates Dr. Michał Matyjaszczyk from the Polish Mother’s Health Center in Lodz. In his opinion, the number of cases will increase because people do not have free access to free tests, so fewer people are tested and it is much easier to spread the infection.