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Ahead of us is the autumn and winter period, about which epidemiologists and infectious disease experts spoke with concern a few months ago. For several weeks, we have been observing a systematic increase in new infections with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in Europe. The head of WHO for the European region warns that in the coming months we can expect an increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19.
- In one day, 55 infections with the SARS-CoV-51 coronavirus were recorded in 2 European countries. This is more than the peaks observed in April. WHO forecasts predict we will face an increased number of deaths from COVID-19 in October and November
- Experts from Asia admit that the increases in coronavirus infections in Europe are worrying, but at the same time they do not believe that the coronavirus will hit the European continent with increased force in the winter months
- Interestingly, some scientists, including WHO expert Margaret Harris, explain that what we are seeing now is one huge wave of COVID-19 that is sweeping the entire world. Polish experts also argue that “there is no second wave” and we still have “one and the same epidemic”
September in Europe worse than April?
In recent weeks, the number of new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections has increased sharply, not only in Spain and France, but also, for example, in the Czech Republic. On September 11 (Friday) in 55 European countries monitored by WHO there were over 51 thousand. new infections, which is more than at the April peak. In the UK, on the other hand, about 1/3 of the new cases announced on Saturday (September 12) concern residents of nursing homes for the elderly.
On BBC Radio Mark Walport, the former UK Government’s former chief science adviser said: “I think you should say we’re on the verge of losing control.”
Hans Kluge, director of WHO Europe, said it would be even harder, and in October and November we will see more deaths from COVID-19. At the moment, while there is an increase in the incidence in Europe, the number of deaths remains relatively stable. However, the prognosis is that the “recovery” of the epidemic will lead to an increase in the death toll.
«This is the moment when we don’t want to hear the bad news and I understand it. I wanted to give you some positive news, but I don’t have any yet »added Kluge.
The graph shows the number of new cases of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections in Europe from January 25 to September 3
Professor Paul Tambyah, president of the Society for Clinical Microbiology and Infection, is also looking with concern at the rise in infections in Europe. The professor noted that it was not entirely clear whether the increase in new infections was mainly due to an increase in the number of tests, or whether it was due to the arrival of the colder months. Respiratory viruses spread better in winter when people congregate in confined and crowded spaces.
Experts also emphasize that Europe’s fate will really depend on how governments and society approach controlling the situation, monitoring and enforcing measures to limit the transmission of the virus. «I cannot believe COVID-19 will attack with increased force in the winter months. We have seen how China or South Korea have been able to successfully control broadcasting in the community on a large scale, even during the winter months of February and March»- said Professor Teo Yik Ying, dean of the NUS Saw Swee Hock School of Public, adding that preventing new cases of coronavirus infection requires measures to limit human interactions, which are currently lacking in many European countries. He warned that countries that will not apply restrictions may expect larger outbreaks of infection.
Check what the experts’ forecasts for the second wave were:
- WHO: We are in for a second peak, not a COVID-19 wave
- What could a second wave of COVID-19 look like? Possible scenarios
- Sweden has given three possible scenarios for a second wave of the epidemic
- Second wave of COVID-19 in the fall? There are many indications of this
The second wave or the “rebirth” of the first?
Some scientists deliberately do not use the term “second wave of COVID-19”, and Margaret Harris of the World Health Organization has made it clear that what we are seeing is “one big wave” that is sweeping across the globe.
European countries that did not have advanced contact tracing and case-testing systems, such as South Korea and Singapore, dealt differently with the spikes in infections and deaths from COVID-19.
If we really visualize COVID-19 as a wave, the actions of France, Great Britain, Spain or Poland can be compared to erecting a dam, which meant that the wave was no longer going so far inland. We managed to reduce the number of infections, flatten the curve, and reduce the number of deaths. And then… we started to dismantle the dam, which made the COVID-19 wave gain momentum again.
Professor Paul Hunter, a COVID-19 expert at Norwich Medical School, said that in order for there to be a second wave of COVID-19, the virus would first have to disappear completely. He himself prefers to use the term “rebirth”. He also argues that no one should be surprised that this “revival” is taking place in densely populated areas, to which Western Europe undoubtedly belongs.
Stopping the transmission of the coronavirus depends a lot on a good case detection system. The society that follows the principles of social distancing and observing the rules of hygiene also plays a significant role.
Before we start thinking of the spikes in new infections in Europe as a second wave, remember that the infections recorded in most countries (maybe except for Germany, which conducted large-scale tests from the beginning) during the first wave are very underestimated. It is estimated that in the UK alone, there could be up to 100 cases of SARS-CoV-000 infections per day at its peak, which is 2 times the number recorded in official statistics. Polish specialists kept repeating that the real number of infections in our country is several times higher than the statistics show, and we do not detect them due to the insufficient number of tests.
In France, which recently recorded an infection record, about 1 million tests a week are now done. According to experts, large-scale testing skews the statistics and, in fact, the virus is spreading more slowly than it was in spring.
Large-scale testing with the simultaneous lifting of further restrictions actually means that there are more and more such cases of infections. At the same time, experts reassure that most of the detected cases are asymptomatic infections, and the number of patients hospitalized due to the severe course of COVID-19 is incomparably smaller than it was at the beginning of the pandemic in March and April.
See: More and more coronavirus infections in Europe. More countries with records
The second wave of COVID-19 in Poland?
Our Polish experts have a similar opinion as Margaret Harris. Professor dr hab. n. med. Robert Flisiak, president of the Polish Society of Epidemiologists and Doctors of Infectious Diseases, said in an interview with Medonet that we still have one and the same epidemic, which, like every epidemic, proceeds in the form of a wave.
– In the case of Poland, we cannot follow the full graphic picture of this wave, because we have done too little research to identify infections, but it is definitely the same wave all the time. The fall in influenza-like illness is inevitable because it is observed every year. The difference will be that we will probably call it an increase in the number of “kovid-like” cases. The course of COVID-19 in Poland, as in other countries in our region, is relatively mild with a small number of deaths. – explains the expert.
Virologist Dr. Tomasz Dziecistkowski adds that there is no “second wave” because the first has not even ended.
– According to WHO reports, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus unfortunately does not show any seasonality of disease. Yes, there is a serious risk to the healthcare sector as SARS-CoV-2 infections start to overlap with influenza and flu-like virus infections. However, this risk applies not only to Poland, but also to other countries – explains Dzieciatkowski.
Regardless of whether we call the increase in infections the second wave or not, the fall-winter season will be a real challenge for us. Finally, a piece of advice from Dr. Dzieśćtkowski:
– To reduce the risk, general flu vaccination is recommended; they will not affect SARS-CoV-2 infections, but may reduce the spread of the influenza virus in the population and hence the risk of co-infections. You should also not forget about the necessity to wear masks, especially in closed places.
Are you ready for the fall / winter season? Write to us on [email protected]
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