For seven days, the daily number of people tested for COVID-19 is equal to the number of samples tested. – Such a situation is theoretically possible, but in practice very unlikely – comments Michał Rogalski, author of the study “COVID-19 in Poland”, who was the first to notice the error.
- The number of people and samples tested has never been equal before. For seven days I have been agreeing – to one thing
- – Something stinks here – said Michał Rogalski, who on Twitter asked min. Niedzielski to clarify the matter
- After all, the ministry’s strategy has not changed, so it seems to me that some error has crept into the data – says Rogalski
- Let us remind you that this is not the first mistake of the Ministry of Health. People already tested were “lost” several times or the same data were counted several times
- You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page
“Over the last 7 days, exactly as many samples as people have been tested. It is a possible situation, but very unlikely. Something stinks here, ”wrote Michał Rogalski on Twitter today, shortly after the Ministry of Health published its daily report with data on the SARS-CoV-2 virus epidemic in Poland.
We would like to remind you that Rogalski is a nineteen-year-old student who, since the beginning of the epidemic in Poland, has been collecting data published by the Ministry of Health, processing it and making it available in the form of a database. When it turned out in November last year that Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki relies on his studies, he found himself in the center of attention.
- The government is introducing restrictions based on the calculations of a 19-year-old fan of statistics? “I try to collect the whole information mess into a coherent whole”
Today, Rogalski pointed out another ambiguity in the data provided by the Ministry of Health, and on Twitter called on Minister Niedzielski to publicly explain the matter. So far, to no avail.
Why can’t the number of people tested and the number of samples tested be equal? We asked Rogalski himself about this.
– There are always people re-examined to rule out an infection or to consider that a given person is healthy – explains our interlocutor. It is enough to look at the general list of 7,2 million people surveyed, although there are already 7,5 million samples tested. So we have 250 thousand. a difference that seems justified – this pool includes not only first-time but also second-time respondents – explains the author of the study.
It is worth noting here that in the first weeks of the pandemic, the Ministry of Health examined potentially infected people once to verify whether or not they were infected. After 14 days, they were re-examined to see if they recovered. However, this strategy has long since changed. Now asymptomatic people 10 days after receiving a positive test result are released from home isolation and considered healthy. Nobody does them again. However, in the case of people with symptoms, the GP may refer the patient for another test to verify their health. It also happens that the test has to be repeated in a given person because it gave an ambiguous result. In all these cases, one person has several samples taken.
- “Lost” cases, 19-year-old’s data, information chaos. There is nothing to be proud of
As noted by Rogalski, the last difference between the number of people surveyed and the samples took place on December 30 last year. At that time, the Ministry of Health reported 39 test persons and 052 tested samples. Since then, and so for the last 53 days, this number is the same as for one person.
– This situation is possible and logical, it may happen that we have completely stopped repeated research, we are only testing for the first time – comments Rogalski. But looking at it realistically – the ministry’s strategy has not changed, so it seems to me that some error has crept into the data – he gives.
What mistake could this be?
Rogalski: I would not suggest deliberate action. I bet on a data mess or a human error that no one has noticed for several days. Regardless of the version of the explanation provided by the ministry, the data is still chaotic. Something like that shouldn’t be happening, because it blurs the picture of statistics a lot.
– Even if we look at the historical data that I have been collecting in my spreadsheet for several months, we will see that there has always been a difference of several thousand between the number of samples tested and the number of people tested – says Rogalski. – There were always some more samples tested. There were even anomalies, that there were more people tested than samples, which is not possible at all. At the time, I assumed that the ministry would add “lost” people to a given day in the earlier days. We have got used to the fact that there is a lot of chaos in the data and the Ministry of Health uses such measures – he adds.
However, it is worth recalling at this point that the Ministry of Health has already made quite a few mistakes regarding the numbers. It is enough to mention the Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship, which for many weeks – according to statistics – was the region performing the most tests for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in Poland. Then it turned out that the same tests were added many times, but for a long time no one noticed the error. It was only discovered when journalists became interested in the topic.
- High number of tests in Kielce? No one has been able to explain it to us for several days
– We have a lot of situations where data is disclosed to the public, but not previously subjected to any verification – explains Michał Rogalski, who follows all the statistics made available on a daily basis and puts them in his original study “COVID-19 in Poland”. – While collecting data on hospitalizations and occupied ventilators from provinces, I often came across mistakes that the ministry wrote blindly. There was a strange jump in the statistics that no one paid attention to. Another example is over 20. lost cases, about which it informed, without explaining when and exactly how they were lost. The case has not been clarified. I’m afraid that this time it will be the same – says the young statistician.
- Why are so many people dying from COVID-19 in Poland, despite the fact that there are fewer infections?
– At the beginning of December, I sent a request for data on recoveries, broken down by provinces, just after the Ministry of Health banned sanitary services from providing this information. I received the answer at the beginning of January, and it said that I will receive the data in February, because the scope of the data is too large.
Michał Rogalski asked Minister Niedzielski on Twitter and asked for clarification of the numerical inconsistencies. So far, he has not received a reply. We also tried to clarify the matter in the Ministry of Health. So far – without success.
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