The current epidemiological situation in Poland for a certain moment resembled the one from a year ago. However, for several days both the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths has been much lower than a year ago. Does this mean that the daily number of coronavirus cases forecasted by some experts at the level of 30 will not be reached in November?
- A month ago, the numbers of daily COVID-19 infections were similar to those of a year ago. So it seemed that we had the same scenario as in autumn 2020.
- However, the current incidence graph is increasingly different from that of last October
- This means that the vaccinations have worked. We are more resistant to infections
- Perhaps we will avoid the fate of Great Britain, where they still cannot conquer the fourth wave
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
The fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic takes an increasing toll. On October 14, the Ministry of Health announced for the first time this fall about 3. new cases of COVID-19. Two days later it was already 3 236 cases. MZ data from Monday, October 18, say about 1 thousand. 537 infections.
A year ago – on October 18, 2020 – there were already over 8,5 thousand. cases daily. The difference is already significant. Until recently, the current epidemic situation in Poland resembled the one from a year ago. The increase in incidence began with the end of the summer holidays and in September the statistics were very similar to those for 2020.On September 22, 2020, 711 coronavirus infections were reported, a day later – already by 974. And on September 21 this year, we had 711 new cases, two days later – 974.
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Even in the first days of October, the numbers from 2020 and 2021 were similar, amounting to about 2. new cases of COVID-19. However, in the second week of October, the charts for this year and the previous year began to diverge more and more. Data on infections from the previous fall are starting to be two or three times greater than the present ones. And this despite the ever weaker compliance with the rules of the sanitary regime and the lack of restrictions, even at the poviat level.
This may indicate that the scenario known for example from Great Britain will not be implemented in our country, the number of infections may not be at the level of 30. per day, which were mentioned in the forecasts of some experts or mathematical models developed in August.
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A year ago, the record day was November 7. MZ then informed about 27 thousand. 875 COVID-19 infections.
The same is true of the number of deaths. Both in 2020 and now, in late September, the number of deaths has started to exceed 20 a day. October has already brought a clear difference in numbers, although – as you can see below – the fluctuations on the charts are very similar.
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The latest figures from the health ministry (from Sunday) show only three deaths, but last week there were reports of 40-60 victims of the coronavirus almost every day. A year ago, at this stage, we already had a three-digit number of deaths. On October 16, 2020, the Ministry of Health reported 132 victims.
The record for last fall is 674 deaths as of November 25.
There are also fewer patients in hospitals. Now their number exceeds 3, a year ago, at this time, over 8 were already occupied. covid beds.
Currently, almost 300 people are under respirators, on October 18, 2020, this number was already 649.
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The much lower figures today than a year ago are due to vaccinations, and – let us recall – vaccines primarily significantly reduce (in over 90%) the risk of a severe course of the disease, hospitalization and death. Almost 52 percent are fully vaccinated. Poles, a booster dose was received by almost 468 thousand. people.
A large part of the society – almost 2,7 million people – also has a history of infection, so we are largely immune to coronavirus infection.
It seems that this year’s fall will not be as dramatic as last year. But on the other hand, nothing can be ruled out. Perhaps there will be as many infections as in 2020, only rates of new infections are now increasing at a much slower pace than during the second wave.
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
Also read:
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- The RS virus attacks with doubled force. “Something like that has never happened before”
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- COVID-19 despite vaccination – who is most at risk? A risk calculator was created
- BioNTech chief: a new COVID-2022 vaccine will be needed in 19
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