Contents
A simultaneous attack of COVID-19 and the flu. Such a nightmare scenario was feared in the current fall / winter season. Meanwhile, global statistics seem to show that the flu has “almost disappeared”. How many experts are wondering how it happened and does that mean the flu is on a retreat?
- The decline in confirmed influenza cases is practically all over the world
- In Australia, there were only 14 cases of influenza in April, compared to 2019 in the same month of 367
- Why has influenza fallen so much? Some people say flu cases haven’t gone away but are on record as COVID-19. Others that SARS-CoV-2 has somehow “displaced” the influenza virus
- Scientists emphasize: influenza remains a very real threat
- For more up-to-date information on the coronavirus epidemic, visit the TvoiLokony home page
Flu and the second wave of COVID-19 at the same time – will the winter nightmare not come true?
“Many feared that a winter nightmare awaited us, which would push our health service to the brink (…)” writes the Daily Mail, referring to the overlap of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the flu season. “The fear was so great that the government launched the largest flu vaccination program in UK history,” the newspaper notes. Meanwhile, it turns out that “the flu has almost disappeared”. According to a study by the government agency Public Health England, the global number of flu cases in 2020 fell by 98%, compared to the same period last year.
The rate of decline in the incidence of influenza can be observed thanks to the data collected by the World Health Organization (WHO). Admittedly, patients are not routinely tested for the flu virus, even when it is suspected that they have the disease. Despite this, many clinics and hospitals screen people with flu symptoms – this data gives the most accurate picture of how many cases of flu are “in circulation”.
This year’s numbers have certainly surprised many experts. The more that the downward trend is noticeable practically all over the world.
A sudden drop in flu
In the southern hemisphere, flu season is during the summer months. Interestingly, the WHO data shows that it was virtually non-existent this year. In Australia, there were only 14 cases of influenza in April, and 2019 in the same month of 367. This is a 96% decrease. During the peak of the flu season, usually in June, no cases were reported. Australia has not reported any positive cases of influenza infection to the WHO since July.
In Chile, only 12 cases of influenza were detected from April to October. In the same period last year, there were almost 7 thousand cases.
In South Africa, only two cases of influenza were detected at the start of the season, and the number dropped to zero over the next month. Compared to last year, it is 99 percent. fewer illnesses.
- Coverage of the COVID-19 coronavirus [MAP]
United Kingdom: we see far fewer cases of influenza
In the Northern Hemisphere, the flu season is just beginning. However, as the Daily Mail points out, in the UK, only 19 cases have been reported to WHO since March (the period when COVID-767 began to spread). Last year, at the same time (March – October), there were almost 7. illnesses.
In 2019, between September and October, laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza increased by 10%, at the moment this number has increased by only 0,7%.
- Can I get flu and COVID-19 at the same time? Unfortunately yes
Obviously, this is not the total number of flu cases. According to data from the Office for National Statistics (a government agency that collects and shares statistical information, including demographics), hundreds of people die every week from suspected flu-related pneumonia. This is the reason why experts continue to emphasize that flu vaccination is necessary, especially in higher risk groups (the elderly, the chronically ill, children).
Are you infected with the coronavirus or someone close to you has COVID-19? Or maybe you work in the health service? Would you like to share your story or report any irregularities that you have witnessed or affected? Write to us at: [email protected]. We guarantee anonymity!
A study by Public Health England confirms the decline in flu cases. The agency estimates that compared to the same period last year, the global number of flu cases fell by 98%.
“There is no doubt that we see far fewer cases of influenza,” said Dr. David Strain of the University of Exeter Medical School.
In Poland, a decrease in the number of cases and suspicions of influenza is also observed. As emphasized in September by the National Institute of Public Health, this tendency was already observed in the spring of 2020. According to the National Institute of Hygiene, until mid-March 2020, the course of the epidemic flu season was comparable to previous seasons. However, with the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, a noticeable decrease in influenza was visible (for vaccinations.pzh.gov.pl).
As reported by the PZH, from October 16 to 22, 2020, a total of 66 thousand people were registered in Poland. 68 cases and suspected cases of influenza. In the same period of 2019, there were 112 thousand of them. 264.
What happened to the flu?
Everyone wonders why the number of people suffering from flu has decreased so much. There are several theories on this subject.
Some people say flu cases haven’t gone away but are on record as COVID-19. Skeptics say the tests cannot tell the difference between coronavirus and flu, which is not the case. Dr Elisabetta Groppelli, a virologist who also works in global public health, explains that influenza and COVID-19 are caused by a wide variety of viruses. – There is no chance of confusing one for the other – a piece of viral genetic material from the coronavirus looks like a piece of spaghetti, while the flu genetic material we are testing looks like eight pieces of penne pasta.
- COVID-19 and the flu share many of the same symptoms. How to tell them apart? [WE EXPLAIN]
Another hypothesis suggests that SARS-CoV-2 has somehow “crowded out” the influenza virus. And there is some scientific rationale for that. When a person is infected with one virus, they are less likely to be infected with another at that time due to the so-called viral interference. As Dr Elisabetta Groppelli explains: ‘Viruses are parasites. After getting into the cell, they don’t want other viruses to compete with them. Thus, the virus already in the body will successfully kick out another parasite.
At the population level, this means that if enough people have one virus (in this case SARS-CoV-2), other viruses (e.g. influenza) will have a limited ability to spread.
- How do viruses spread? The most common mistakes
The same effect was achieved by a study conducted by Chinese scientists, it concerned the SARS and MERS coronaviruses. Infection with another virus, such as the flu, has been found to protect against coronavirus infection to some extent. Unfortunately, it has not been checked whether the reverse is also true. It is now too early to say so, according to Dr Groppelli.
Distance, masks and vaccinations worked
There is another possible reason for the decline in flu cases, as most scientists point to it. Well, the observed trend is related to the introduced precautionary measures: social distancing, washing hands, closing schools and shops, isolation.
Both the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and the influenza virus spread in the same way: through infected droplets. However, it is believed that people infected with CIVID-19 are more and more infectious than people with flu. The flu incubation period is also shorter. After catching the flu, symptoms usually develop within two days, while for COVID-19 it takes around five days.
- Seven myths about masks that you need to forget as soon as possible
This means that even small precautions will have a much greater and faster effect on the transmission of the flu. – All studies on the wearing of face masks and social distancing are based on reducing the transmission of flu. So no wonder it worked, says Dr. David Strain.
Australian experts believe their low flu levels are partly due to the immunization program, which the government has stepped up by 50%. (instead of 12 million, 18 million vaccines were ordered).
This year global data is not “solid”
The Daily Mail poses an important question: can we trust flu data at all? Most officials say the global data is not “robust” this year, due to the fact that doctors and laboratories focus mainly on coronavirus research.
The ongoing pandemic has also reduced visits to doctors, resulting in fewer suspicious cases. On the other hand, Public Health England stresses that overall flu activity is reported to be “low”.
Experts agree that a sudden drop in flu infections requires observation, but at the same time being vigilant and vaccinating against the flu. The flu is still a very real threat.
You may be interested in:
- Virologist: the pandemic has demonstrated very emphatically that we are a society of egoists focused on the end of our nose
- “All we can do to prevent the spread of the coronavirus is to have our own minds” [LETTER TO MEDTvoiLokony]
- Prof. Piotr Kuna: There is no proof that lockdown will help us win the war against the virus
The content of the medTvoiLokony website is intended to improve, not replace, the contact between the Website User and their doctor. The website is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Before following the specialist knowledge, in particular medical advice, contained on our Website, you must consult a doctor. The Administrator does not bear any consequences resulting from the use of information contained on the Website. Do you need a medical consultation or an e-prescription? Go to halodoctor.pl, where you will get online help – quickly, safely and without leaving your home.