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Australia, like other countries in the southern semicircle, has just ended flu season. This year it was a record mild, even though it coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic. Can the example of Australia be a forecast for us? How will the flu season unfold in Poland and other northern hemisphere countries?
- The very mild flu season in Australia and the southern hemisphere as a whole shows how the maintenance of safety measures helps to reduce the transmission of viruses in society
- The Northern Hemisphere countries that are just starting the flu season are looking at the situation in Australia. Experts are not convinced that we will take it as smoothly as possible, so they encourage people to get vaccinated against the flu and comply with the restrictions.
- What will the flu season 2020/2021 in Poland look like? Professor Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz, an epidemiologist from the NIPH-PZH, pointed out that the previous season actually ended earlier, precisely by introducing restrictions related to the limitation of COVID-19 transmission
Australia has virtually no flu this season
In the Southern Hemisphere, the flu season, which generally runs from April to September, has been a record mild this year, according to the World Health Organization. Australia can be taken as an example. In August 2019, the country had 61 laboratory-confirmed flu cases. In August 000, there were … 2020. “It’s practically not the season. We’ve never seen numbers like this before, ”said Ian Barr, professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Melbourne.
The situation was similar in South Africa and South America. “Where the flu season could be expected, such as Chile or Argentina, we haven’t seen it this year,” said Dr. Andrea Vicari, disease adviser at the Pan American Health Organization. The COVID-19 pandemic is largely responsible for such a mild flu season. Sounds weird, but it’s a rational explanation.
How has COVID-19 affected the flu season in Australia?
The flu season in the southern hemisphere coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in those areas. All the precautions that have been put in place – staying at home, practicing social distancing, wearing face masks, following good hygiene – have resulted in the number of flu infections dropping sharply.
The influenza virus, like SARS-CoV-2, is transmitted by airborne droplets. Experts also admitted that COVID-19 may have contributed to greater flu vaccination coverage. Some people could also have acquired immunity to the flu viruses circulating in the southern hemisphere this year.
Earlier, we also reported that Japanese scientists believe that the COVID-19 pandemic may have a positive impact on reducing the spread of seasonal flu thanks to the introduction of a sanitary regime.
What might flu season look like in the Northern Hemisphere?
Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, believes that predicting the course of the flu season is very dangerous. Even if we look at the flu season in the Southern Hemisphere, translating it into what will happen in the Northern Hemisphere is not reliable. Schaffner worries that the flu season will coincide with COVID-19 and there will be a strain on healthcare systems.
In the United States, during the previous flu season, between 410 and 740 were hospitalized because of this virus. people. As of March, 2 people have stayed in U.S. hospitals due to SARS-CoV-372 infection. The model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicts 217 percent. the increase in the use of hospital beds by COVID-170 patients from now until January 19, which causes great concern for experts.
What can be done to reduce the number of flu cases? The first step is to get vaccinated against the flu. «By receiving the flu vaccine, you reduce the risk of being hospitalized for severe illness or complications. As a result, hospital beds will be more accessible to potential patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 »- explained Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the USA in an interview with WebMed.
What will the flu season in Poland look like?
In Poland, the flu season usually starts in September and lasts until April. This year, experts are particularly urging people to get vaccinated against the flu in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccinations are partially or fully reimbursed. We wrote about what you should know about the flu vaccine and how to organize the vaccination:
- The flu vaccine 2020. What should I know?
- Do you want a flu shot? We explain how to do this
According to the epidemiological report prepared by the National Institute of Public Health – National Institute of Hygiene, between September 1 and 7, 25 cases of flu and suspected flu were recorded. In 239 voivodships the incidence in this period was higher than in the previous reporting period (the previous seven days). This may mean that we are slowly entering the cold and flu season. In the Podkarpackie, Łódzkie and Podlaskie Voivodeships, the incidence was lower than in the previous reporting period.
In the period from 1 to 7 September, 103 people were referred to the hospital due to influenza or suspected influenza. In 86 of them, the reason for referral was problems with the digestive system. During the first seven days of September 2020, there were no deaths from influenza.
Can we predict what the 2020/2021 flu season will look like in Poland? During a press briefing organized by the “Polish Program for Combating Influenza”, Professor Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz, an epidemiologist from the NIPH-NIH, pointed out (referring to the previous flu season) that “until mid-March the course of the epidemic was comparable to previous seasons. However, with the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, there is a noticeable decline in influenza incidence ». The professor also added that: “this decline is related to the lockdown, due to the social discipline of wearing masks, working remotely, and distancing oneself. There were much less of these cases ».
The COVID-19 situation clearly shows that simple steps such as those mentioned by the professor can go a long way in reducing the number of flu, parainfluenza and colds. This is worth remembering, not only in the context of a pandemic.
The editorial board recommends:
- Are flu vaccines enough for everyone? We check
- This year everyone should get a flu shot. Will this save us from COVID-19?
- Expert: I recommend that you get flu vaccinations commonly
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