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The Institute of Health Measurements and Assessment at the University of Washington on February 4 updated the model for the development of the coronavirus epidemic. The latest data show that 2021 people will die of COVID-19 in Poland by June 48. This means an increase by almost 877 thousand. compared to February 10, 5.

  1. The Institute of Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington regularly updates its model for the development of the coronavirus epidemic
  2. The forecasts also include data for Poland
  3. The model assumes that in the worst case, up to 2021 will die by June 54. Poles suffering from COVID-19
  4. If Poles commonly use masks, this number may drop to 46,2 thousand. victims
  5. More current information can be found on the Onet homepage.

Number of COVID-19 deaths in Poland – what does the new model assume?

The Institute of Health Measurement and Assessment at the University of Washington, DC, has been developing models for the development of a global pandemic since spring 2020. The forecasts also cover the situation in our country. When creating the model, researchers take into account a number of variables, including the scope of restrictions, as well as the current performance of the health care system.

  1. Check the previous forecast: By February, 35 people will die in Poland. people. In the USA, almost 400 IHME issues another pandemic forecast

The IHME model for Poland assumes that the spread of new COVID-19 variants in Poland will not have a real impact on the number of deaths in our country. The forecast published on February 4 assumes that in the worst case, in June 2021, 54 will be recorded in Poland. deaths of people suffering from COVID-19. This number could be significantly reduced with the widespread wearing of masks. The model indicates that by June 1, there would be approximately 46,2 thousand deaths.

The IHME forecast also includes predictions for April 2021. If Poles used masks commonly, the daily number of deaths on April 1 would be 14. Otherwise, the model assumes about 41 deaths a day.

  1. The British mutation of the virus has reached Poland. What does this mean for us?

Poland: the peak of infections is behind us

The Institute also estimates at what stage of the coronavirus epidemic Poland is. It turns out that according to the model, the peak of the daily number of infections is already behind us. It was supposed to be, according to IHME, on November 5 (out of about 57,6 thousand infections). Official data, however, indicate that the highest incidence rate in Poland was on November 7, with 27. 875 diagnosed cases of COVID-19.

The model shows that the highest daily increase in infections could be recorded at the beginning of May (from approx. 15,3 thousand cases). However, this number, according to the IHME, would decrease significantly with the widespread use of masks. Then, by June 1, we would have 1464 infections a day.

Also read:

  1. Coronavirus in Poland. What awaits us until March? The Americans created three scenarios
  2. The British variant of the virus mutated again. What does it mean?
  3. Denmark: more and more infections with the British variant. “It’s the silence before the storm”

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