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According to preliminary, not yet reviewed studies, 70 percent. people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, do not pass it on to anyone. The so-called “Super natives”.
A group of Hong Kong epidemiologists found that only 20 percent. cases of people infected with coronavirus there accounted for 80 percent. all transmissions.
Scientists also observed that 70 percent people who have been infected with the coronavirus have not passed it on to anyone. All events involving the super carriers took place during social gatherings.
– Incidents involving super-terrorists happen more often than we expected. The infection rate from super-infestations is greater than we imagined, Ben Cowling, one of the study’s co-authors, told Business Insider.
Super-spreaders are largely minority people who infect disproportionately more than others.
Scientists pay attention to situations when one person infects disproportionately many other people. This was the case, for example, in February, when one person infected 43 others. Business Insider also cites other events: during a choir meeting in Washington one of the choristers infected 53 people. A New York lawyer has passed on the coronavirus to over 100 other people.
As part of their research, Cowling and his colleagues examined more than 1000 cases of SARS-CoV-2 coronavir infection in Hong Kong between January 23 and April 28. It turned out that supercarriers were responsible for most of the infections. Approx. 350 of the analyzed cases concerned the spread of the coronavirus in the community, the rest related to people who had returned from other countries. Half of the 350 cases of infection occurred at social events involving a superbearder.
See: How is the coronavirus spread? This movie gives food for thought
It has been assumed that the R coefficient of the virus, i.e. the ability of one person to infect others, in the case of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is 2-2,5. To talk about epidemic extinction, the R-factor should be less than 1.
In the case of super-damage, the R-factor is much higher. Research in Hong Kong found that one person infects at least 6 other people. In fact, 20 percent. cases of infections were responsible for 80 percent. broadcast, most of them related to events such as weddings, attending a service, or being at a bar.
The remaining 20 percent. transmission was the result of only 10 percent. cases in which infected patients passed the coronavirus to one or a maximum of two people – usually members of their family.
Social exposures resulted in more secondary cases compared to family or work exposures, wrote the authors of the study.
More about super-survivors: Who are the “super explorers”?
Previous studies confirm the observations of scientists from Hong Kong. In 2011, one study found that 20 percent. of the population was responsible for 80 percent. transmission of many diseases, including malaria. This is the 80-20 rule.
Some scientists even believe that this ratio may be even lower. A model presented by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggested that 10 percent of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were responsible for 80 percent. global broadcasts.
The Super-Evil events had several things in common: They included meetings in rooms with many people from different households. They were in close contact with each other for a long time.
What can we learn from this research? Cowling believes they could influence countries’ responses to future waves of coronavirus infections.
– This fall, we will be in a much better position to deal with the second wave better. Knowing [about how the coronavirus is spreading] gives us a chance to take more meaningful action without blocking it fully again, he explains.
Several countries, such as Japan and South Korea, have shown that it is possible to recover from the epidemic without drastically restricting the movement of citizens. Japan’s success was based on its citizens following the rules: avoiding confined spaces, crowded places and close contacts.
According to Cowling, maintaining the principles of social distancing is key to limiting the transmission of the coronavirus.
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