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As of 2021, 71% of our countries believe in horoscopes. That is, 2/3 of our fellow citizens admit the idea that Pisces are vulnerable, and it is better not to mess with Scorpios. We tell how psychology explains belief in horoscopes
Experiments of scientists: do people really believe vague predictions
Bertram Forer’s experiment
In 1948, the American psychologist and professor Bertram Forer invited his students to take a test, promising that the answers to the questions would help to get an accurate portrait of the personality of each of them.
A week later, Forer handed out the test results to the students and asked them to note how true they were. The average score was 4,3 out of 5. But the trick was that the results were not personalized. All students received shuffled theses from 13 points, which the scientist borrowed from horoscopes. Here is some of them:
- You have a lot of untapped potential.
- You pride yourself on your independent thinking and don’t believe in empty claims without hard evidence.
- You are self-critical.
- Sometimes you worry: have you made the right decision? Did they do what was right?
- Outwardly, you are disciplined and capable of self-control, although internally you feel insecure and insecure.
Students were asked to rate each statement on a scale of zero to five, with five being “this describes me very accurately.” So Forer first confirmed the “Barnum effect” – the reception of fortunetellers and charlatans who use vague phrases in predictions.
The term “Barnum effect” was introduced in 1956 by the American psychologist Paul Mil. He named the reception after the famous American showman Phineas Barnum. The bottom line is that people tend to believe in general predictions about their lives, but only if those predictions are positive.
Vera Tolmacheva, clinical psychologist, postgraduate student of Sechenov University, employee of the Psychiatric Clinical Hospital No. 1 named after N.A. Alekseeva:
“In horoscopes, the Barnum effect works powerfully when the following factors are observed:
- There are abstract formulations that can be applied to most people.
- Positive characteristics and favorable forecasts are given.
- The reader trusts the source, considers it authoritative.
- The reader is also sure that the description is written specifically for him.
For example, on Monday, a person goes to work and reads in the newspaper: “Aries, today you have a hard day. You need to tighten up and focus your stubbornness on important matters. If you do this, you will be rewarded in the evening.” Formally, the horoscope is right. Today is the first weekday, and you need to do work, and in the evening you can relax and pay attention to your business. But these are only general phrases that each person can interpret as he pleases.
Michelin Gauquelin’s experiments
French psychologist Michel Gauquelin conducted his own research to test how true horoscopes are. He ordered from one of the most famous astrologers a description of his character, taking into account the sign of the zodiac. It sounded like this: “The warmth of the Virgins is organically combined with intelligence and wit, the meaning of their life is in complete devotion to other people.” Only now Gauquelin gave the “foreteller” the date and time not of his birth, but of the French serial killer Marcel Petiot.
In 1968, the experiment was continued. Gauquelin published an ad in Ici Paris magazine, in which he offered everyone to receive a personal horoscope. It was only necessary to send him the name, address, date and place of birth. 150 people responded to the call, and 90% of them rated the prediction as “very accurate.” But only Gauquelin did not make any personal horoscopes, but sent to all respondents the same description of the personality of Marcel Petiot.
Tatyana Alekseeva, clinical psychologist, pathologist, member of the Association for Cognitive Behavioral Therapy:
“It’s pretty easy to project your own expectations onto vague predictions. All statements are too generalized, so there is no resistance. At the same time, substituting the events of his life into the general words of the horoscope, a person receives a benefit in any case: either a favorable forecast, which pleases in itself, or a warning, which, as it were, arms, makes it possible to be prepared for trouble.
Insecure people believe in horoscopes
In 1998, Finnish scientist Mariana Lindeman conducted a study. She gave 40 students anonymous questionnaires and asked them to answer three questions: how confident they are, whether they experienced traumatic events, and whether they believe in astrology. Lindeman found that people with low self-esteem are more likely to believe in the paranormal. She came to the conclusion that in this way people seek to understand how the world works and what place they occupy in it, they try to reduce the stress of making vital decisions. Horoscopes are a great help in this: they partially remove responsibility and increase self-esteem, because they usually contain flattering statements.
Vera Tolmacheva:
“Believing in horoscopes can make it difficult for people to rationally assess and deal with stressful situations in their lives. Constant optimism and rejection of negative events can lead to a blind belief that there should be no barriers and tears in life at all.
People prefer to believe in good things and reject bad predictions.
Some people prefer the information that suits them best. This psychological phenomenon is called the positivity bias or the “Pollyanna Principle” after the heroine of the early XNUMXth century novel of the same name by Eleanor Porter. Pollyanna’s father taught her to “play for joy”, that is, to see only the positive in everything. For example, one girl really wanted to receive a doll as a gift, but she got crutches, although everything was in order with her legs. Instead of being upset, she was glad that the crutches would not be useful to her.
It is because of the Pollyanna principle that horoscopes do not predict only the bad. All negative predictions will be offset by positive ones. Here, for example, is what the stars promised Sagittarius in August 2021:
Associated with the Pollyanna principle are two psychological mechanisms that essentially make people believe in horoscopes. These are subjective validation and selective memory.
Subjective validation helps to find meaning where there was none originally. This is a cognitive bias that causes people to draw the conclusions they want from predictions.
Tatyana Alekseeva:
“Due to subjective validation, a person decides that a statement about him is true, based primarily on his own individual experience, and not using objective criteria for verification. For example, a person listened to a horoscope for the day, where it was said: “Beware of conflicts with the authorities”, was slightly skeptical about this, but nevertheless fixed this forecast in his head. And the next day he had a skirmish with the management. There is a possibility that next time a person will treat the horoscope more carefully, since his personal experience confirmed the “validity” of the first prediction – after all, as it was said in the horoscope, it happened.
Vera Tolmacheva:
“There is objective validation – when we get information about a person from reliable psychological tests. But there are also dubious tests in magazines with the characteristic titles “Are you happy?” or “Are you a good hostess?” Based on his own experience, a person is convinced that the test correctly identified his personality traits. Believing in astrology, a person believes that the sign of the zodiac determines his character. A person will attribute any situations that occur to the peculiarity of his zodiac sign, forgetting that everyone is individual, with their own thoughts and ideas about the world.
Selective memory helps you not remember inaccurate predictions and focus only on what came true. Scientists from Lund University in Sweden have proven that people can control their memories. The researchers asked the subjects to try to forget some facts about their lives and at that moment analyzed their brain activity using an electroencephalogram. The results showed that during “forgetting” in the brain, the same areas that are responsible for motor impulses are activated. For example, we can give the brain an “instruction” not to touch a pot on the stove so as not to burn our hands. Similarly, the brain can consciously forget memories if it is instructed not to think about them. According to the observations of Swedish scientists, it takes only a couple of hours to suppress information.
Dmitry Kozlov, Senior Lecturer, Department of Psychology, National Research University Higher School of Economics:
“We really selectively recall the events that were, and we better remember the events that are pleasant to us. In addition, we better remember those events that correspond to our ideas about ourselves and our picture of the world. You can draw such a parallel: if you buy a car of some brand, let’s say Hyundai Creta, then you immediately begin to notice how much Hyundai Creta drives around. Not because there are more of them, but because for you personally they have become more vivid and memorable.
What science says about horoscopes
In 1985, the scientific journal Nature published material that proved that astrologers cannot compare a person’s natal chart and his personal characteristics. American physicist Sean Carlson conducted the experiment in three stages. At the first, he recruited 116 volunteers and ordered horoscopes for them from a “serious” astrologer. At the second stage, Carlson turned to psychologists to draw up a character description for each subject. Finally, at the third stage, the physicist found 28 astrologers, showed them horoscopes, and attached three psychological characteristics to each: the “specialists in the stars” had to correlate them. Of the 116 options, only 39 converged. In scientific research, this means that the result was obtained by typing.
In 1958, Australian and Canadian scientists Geoffrey Dean and Ivan Kelly recorded 2 babies born minutes apart. Over the next decades, Dean and Kelly examined more than 000 different characteristics, including occupation, anxiety level, aggressiveness, sociability, IQ level, and ability in sports, math, and reading. The experiment showed that there were no one hundred percent “twins” among the subjects, although, according to the logic of astrologers, they should have the same character traits and talents.
Is there anything good about people believing in horoscopes?
American developmental psychologist Monisha Pasupathy believes that horoscopes can give life a sense of order. From this point of view, faith in astrology is justified: with its help, people can explain many events in life for themselves. For example, a person may well believe that he was not promoted because of the Sagittarius boss, and not because of daily delays. And it’s also easier for many not to admit that they have character problems, but to say: “I am such a person because I am a Taurus.”
Tatyana Alekseeva:
“There is an unspoken rule in psychotherapy. If a person has some kind of mechanism for adapting to the world, then he needs this mechanism, regardless of how others evaluate him. Once it is formed and works, this is something for which there are now enough resources of the psyche, and we have no right to take it away from a person just because such a method seems irrational to us. Accordingly, there may be benefits from believing in horoscopes, because this is a way to cope with psycho-emotional stress. Let it be situational, let it not solve the issue of anxiety or distrust of oneself. Here and now it helps – and this can be enough for a person.